FSLR has pulled back nearly 10% this week to $225.56, surrendering a chunk of the 20% surge that followed the Q2 print — and the question now is whether shorts are pressing their advantage or getting squeezed into the next leg.
The short-side story has evolved meaningfully since last week's notes. Short interest, which climbed aggressively into the post-earnings rally, has edged back to 9.7% of the free float — roughly flat week-on-week after a brief spike above 10.6% mid-week. That mid-week peak was the highest reading in the 30-day window; the slight pullback to current levels suggests some shorts took profits into the selloff rather than pressing further. The borrow market, however, tells a different story than the previous two articles described. Availability has loosened materially — from around 34–35% a week ago to 768% now. That is a dramatic shift: the lending pool is no longer tight. Cost to borrow has also eased, down 11% on the week to just 0.39%, its lowest level in the 30-day history. The squeeze pressure that looked credible last week has dissipated. Bears can add positions today far more easily than they could seven days ago.
Options positioning has picked up the slack as the main caution signal. The put/call ratio has moved well above its recent average, hitting 0.614 against a 20-day mean of 0.577 — a z-score of 2.4, which puts it near the most defensive reading of the past month. That is not extreme panic, but it is the most pointed options hedge this stock has seen over the trailing 30 sessions. The move aligns with the weekly price decline: investors are paying more for downside protection as the post-earnings glow fades. Notably, the PCR 52-week low sits at 0.54 and the high at 1.02, so the current reading is elevated but not at stress levels.
The Street remains broadly constructive, and the recent analyst activity reinforces that. Wells Fargo raised its target to $313 from $300 earlier this week, maintaining Overweight. That followed target increases from Citigroup and Guggenheim in early August, both maintaining Buy-equivalent ratings. The consensus is 15 buys against 10 holds, with a mean target of $271.87 — implying roughly 20% upside from current levels. Bernstein sits as the lone visible bear, with an Underperform and a $197 target. Valuation multiples reflect the week's softness: the P/E has compressed to 10.6x and EV/EBITDA to 7.2x, both down slightly on the week. The EV/EBIT factor score ranks in the 95th percentile of the universe — on that measure alone, the stock looks cheap. The analyst recommendation differential score of 94 confirms the Street skews heavily bullish relative to peers. The short score factor, however, ranks in just the 16th percentile, a reminder that bearish positioning remains a live drag.
Insider activity adds a mild wrinkle. The General Counsel sold 3,700 shares at $249.38 on August 11 — at prices well above where the stock trades today. The CTO also sold twice in early August. These are modest in size and low significance scores, and the 90-day net is a small positive in share terms, so this is not a coordinated selling campaign. But the pattern of officers selling into the post-earnings strength, at prices the stock has since retreated from, is worth noting. Capital Research and Management stands out on the institutional side, adding 3.7 million shares in the most recent reported period — a substantial position build that provides a counterweight to the insider selling.
Among peers, ENPH fell 3.3% on the week and CSIQ dropped 4.8%, suggesting the solar-adjacent space broadly gave back ground alongside FSLR. SEDG was the exception, gaining 2.1% after its collapse last week. The next earnings event is scheduled for October 27 — the prior two prints moved the stock 5.9% on day one and 22.5% over five sessions, establishing a pattern of outsized post-earnings moves in both directions that makes the options skew worth tracking into Q3.
The key dynamic to watch is whether the newly loosened borrow market draws fresh short interest back in, or whether bulls use the cheaper entry to reassert control ahead of the October print.
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