Keybanc Upgrade Can't Halt First Solar's Short Sellers

Three distinct signals converged on FSLR this week. Short sellers added aggressively, options traders piled into protective puts, and an analyst lifted their bearish rating — all at once.

Short Sellers Move In

Short interest hit 10.3% of free float on September 24. That's up 18.7% in a single week. It marks the highest reading since mid-August, when SI was running above 10.6%.

The position build is striking given the stock has already fallen 14% over the past month. Bears are not covering into weakness — they are adding.

The ORTEX short score climbed to 55.9 on September 24, up from 52.0 just eight sessions earlier. That is a steady grind higher across the past two weeks.

Options Traders Hedge Hard

The put/call ratio hit 0.788 on September 24 — 2.3 standard deviations above its 20-day mean. By September 25 it had eased slightly to 0.757, still elevated.

The 52-week high for the PCR is 0.89. The current cluster is the most defensive options positioning seen on FSLR in months. Protective demand accelerated as the stock dropped 10.3% over the prior week.

Keybanc Blinks — But the Gap Is Wide

Keybanc upgraded FSLR to Sector Weight from Underweight on September 28. Analyst Sophie Karp did not attach a price target.

The move is a de-risking of an outright bear call, not a bullish pivot. The consensus remains Hold, with nine hold ratings and zero sells. The mean analyst price target sits at $276.17 — against a last close of $177.71. That gap of roughly 55% reflects how far the stock has fallen below where most analysts had anchored their models.

GLJ Research cut its target to $250 from $315 on September 22, maintaining Buy. Piper Sandler initiated with Overweight at $260 on September 9.

The borrow market tells a different story from the short data. Availability sits at 618% — meaning roughly six shares are available to borrow for every one currently lent out. The cost to borrow is just 0.52%. Bears face no friction sourcing stock.

Earnings Approaching

First Solar reports on October 27. The last print — July 30 — sent the stock up 5.9% on the day and 22.5% over the following five days.

Data Summary

• Short interest: 10.3% of free float as of Sept 24, up 18.7% week-on-week
• Put/call ratio: 0.788 peak (Sept 24), 2.3 std devs above 20-day mean
• ORTEX short score: 55.9 (Sept 24), up from 52.0 on Sept 16
• Availability: 618% — ample borrow supply, cost to borrow 0.52%
• Analyst consensus: Hold; mean target $276.17 vs last close $177.71
• Next earnings: October 27