JSW Into Earnings Eve: Short Score at 85.4, Bears Still Dug In

JSW — Jastrzębska Spółka Węglowa — arrives at earnings eve with its ORTEX short score at a fresh high, borrow costs at their steepest level in weeks, and the stock up 8% on the week — a setup where the stock and the shorts are moving in opposite directions heading into Thursday's print.

The short score tells the clearest story. It has climbed to 85.4 as of August 14 — up from 83.7 flagged in the last note, and well above the 72.8 trough recorded at the end of July. Every session since early August has added to the reading, a sustained grind that now places JSW in the 1st percentile of its entire universe on this measure. The bottom 3rd percentile rankings on both days-to-cover and availability rank confirm this is not a borderline reading — it reflects one of the more aggressively shorted names tracked by ORTEX right now.

The lending market has eased marginally from its recent tightest point but remains deeply constrained. Availability is now around 10% — roughly nine shares lent out for every one still free to borrow — after touching as low as 4.4% on August 10 and a 52-week floor of 2.9% on July 14. That slight loosening is the first meaningful move in availability since the beginning of the month. Cost to borrow has continued higher, reaching 10.3% on August 13 — a 24% rise in a week and back to the levels last seen in early July, when it briefly crested 10.7%. The direction of travel in borrowing costs has been almost unbroken since mid-July: from 2.9% on July 20 to where it stands now, more than a threefold increase in under a month.

The Street offers little conviction to interrupt that bearish positioning. The consensus sits at hold, with just one buy against two hold ratings. The mean analyst price target of PLN 23.0 sits well below the current price of PLN 28.28 — implying the Street, in aggregate, sees the stock as already overvalued at current levels. EPS momentum factors tell a different story: JSW ranks in the 98th percentile on 90-day EPS momentum and the 89th percentile on 30-day EPS momentum, suggesting estimates have been revised sharply higher in recent months. The PE multiple of 6.3x and EV/EBITDA of 2.5x are low in absolute terms, but neither multiple has moved dramatically in the past month. The State Treasury of Poland holds 55% of shares, which effectively caps the free float and amplifies the impact of any short covering on price.

Earnings history offers limited guidance on direction. The most recent print on May 19 produced a 2.4% single-day decline followed by an 8.3% five-day recovery — a pattern of initial disappointment absorbed quickly. An earlier April print triggered a 3.2% gain on the day. Neither episode gives a definitive steer, though the five-day recovery after May's drop is worth holding in mind given the current elevated short positioning.

Thursday's August 20 print is the event that resolves the tension between a stock trading above analyst targets and a borrow market priced for continued pressure — the next session will show whether the five-week buildup in short positioning was anticipation or accumulation.