Brown-Forman Heads Into Earnings With Bulls Gaining Ground

Brown-Forman BF.A reports fiscal first-quarter results on August 26 with the stock quietly recovering ground — and short sellers retreating.

Options traders are positioned more bullishly than usual into the print. The put/call ratio has eased to 0.76, a full standard deviation below its 20-day average of 0.80. That reading sits well off the 52-week high of 2.53, when hedging demand was intense. The shift suggests investors are treating the upcoming release with more confidence than they have for much of the past year. The price action reinforces that tone: BF.A has climbed 8.6% over the past month to $29.06, including a modest 0.6% gain on the week.

Short sellers are not pressing their bets. At just 0.47% of free float, short interest is negligible — and it has actually trended lower over the past month, falling roughly 9% from late July levels even as the stock rallied. Borrow availability remains extremely loose at 414%, meaning more than four shares sit available in the lending pool for every one already borrowed. Borrowing costs are equally undemanding at 1.3%, down slightly on the week. Nothing in the lending market signals that bears are building conviction here.

The more interesting tension is in what the fundamentals tell bulls versus what recent history cautions. The company's dividend score ranks in the 98th percentile — a genuine standout for income-oriented holders. EPS momentum, however, is weak: the 30-day and 90-day momentum scores rank in the bottom quarter of the universe, at the 21st and 29th percentiles respectively. EPS surprise history ranks near the 22nd percentile, so the Street has not been consistently impressed by results. Historical earnings reactions offer a mixed picture: the most recent event on July 23 saw a modest one-day decline of 0.7%, though the stock recovered sharply over the following week, gaining 8.6%. The June 4 print delivered a 4.5% one-day jump followed by a 6.7% five-day gain — a more straightforwardly positive pattern. Valuation data available in the snapshot is too stale to cite with confidence.

Insider activity through late May showed awards concentrated around CEO Lawson Whiting and other senior executives, with some modest coincident sales of vested stock — routine, low-significance transactions rather than directional signals. Dimensional Fund Advisors added over 2.4 million shares in the most recent reporting period, a notable accumulation for a rules-based manager that typically responds to improving factor scores.

The August 26 print will test whether a recovering stock price and loosening short pressure reflect genuine fundamental improvement in Brown-Forman's volume trends, or simply a relief rally in a name that had been oversold relative to spirits sector peers.