P reports on August 26 with the stock already trading at $108.55 — down 8% on the week but up 46% over the past month — setting up a print where the Street is still catching up to a rally that has already happened.
The most striking development since last week's note is that the upgrade wave has continued. Wedbush raised its target to $127 on August 21, keeping an Outperform. TD Cowen made the boldest move, lifting its target to $170 on August 18. The consensus mean now stands around $108 — almost exactly where the stock is trading — which means the average analyst has effectively marked the stock to market without yet deciding whether it deserves a premium. Morgan Stanley's upgrade to Overweight with a $108 target, reported August 10, illustrates the same dynamic: the conviction is there, but the targets are barely ahead of the tape. UBS remains the lone bear, holding a Sell at $70 — a target that looks increasingly detached from the rest of the Street.
The founder is providing the sharpest counterpoint to analyst optimism. John Colgrove sold over $18 million worth of shares across August 13 and 14 alone, trimming roughly 789,720 shares from his position. That follows the pattern flagged in last week's note: systematic selling into every up-day. The institutional picture is more balanced — BlackRock added modestly and holds 10.4% — but the founder's consistent selling is the ownership signal that matters most heading into the print.
Options positioning is calm, not charged. The put/call ratio runs at 0.70, just a fraction above its 20-day average of 0.68, with a z-score below 1. There is no unusual demand for downside protection. Borrow conditions are similarly relaxed: short interest covers just 3.1% of the free float, availability is at its practical maximum with over 256 million shares available to lend, and cost to borrow — though up 36% on the week — remains below half a percent. Short sellers have not crowded in despite the stock's sharp run. Peers have mostly retreated this week: STX fell 12.7%, OSS dropped 16.2%, and NTAP slid 7.2%, while P gave back 8%. The storage complex is broadly weaker, making Everpure's resilience relative to some names notable.
The August 26 print is therefore a test of whether Everpure's raised revenue guidance of $4.41–$4.51B and 70%-plus gross margins can hold — and whether the company can finally close the gap between its operational story and a valuation running at 42x earnings, at a moment when analysts have just arrived at the price and the founder is already leaving it.
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