BYD Company Limited heads into its August 28 half-year results with short sellers in steady retreat and the borrow market offering little friction for either side of the trade.
The short interest angle is the clearest story here. Bears have been trimming positions consistently — SI has fallen 13% over the past month to 6.8% of free float, with the decline accelerating this week (down nearly 5% in five days). The actual share count now runs around 251 million shares short, down from peaks above 288 million in mid-July. That retreat has come alongside a price that has itself moved higher, up 5.6% on the week and 3.7% over the past month to HKD 93.15. Borrow conditions reinforce the picture: availability is ample at 455%, meaning nearly five shares remain available for every one already lent out, and the cost to borrow a mere 0.94% — well within the range that signals no meaningful squeeze pressure. Bears are not being forced out by a tight borrow market; they are choosing to leave.
The bull and bear debate around BYD centres on two competing reads of the same business. The bull case rests on dominance: BYD is the world's largest EV and battery maker, carrying a PE around 15x and EV/EBITDA near 4.8x — multiples that look compressed for a company with this market position and EPS momentum ranked in the 71st percentile over both 30 and 90-day windows. The analyst consensus targets HKD 107.71, implying roughly 16% upside from current levels. Bears point to quality metrics that remain a drag — the ORTEX stock score sits at 59, with capital efficiency the weakest pillar, and the f-score low at 3. Return on capital employed is thin, and within the peer group, BYD has trailed names like Nio and Li Auto on near-term momentum.
One wrinkle worth noting is the divergence between BYD and some of its correlated Hong Kong and mainland peers heading into the print. Geely Auto gained 5.2% on the week, broadly in line with BYD's 5.6% move. But several A-share auto names — including 601127, down 5.1% on the week — have moved sharply lower, suggesting sector sentiment is fragmented rather than uniformly bullish. That divergence makes BYD's own print more isolated as a catalyst; the stock's move will be judged on its own numbers rather than riding a broad sector tide.
The earnings release will test whether BYD's dominant delivery volumes through the first half of 2026 have translated into margin improvement convincing enough to justify a re-rating from the current compressed multiples — or whether quality-of-earnings concerns keep the stock anchored despite the bearish retreat.
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