PSNY heads into its August 27 earnings report with a borrow market that remains firmly restricted and short-side conviction running well above EV peers.
The lending backdrop is the clearest indication of how the market is positioned. Availability has tightened to just 34% — meaning roughly one share remains available to borrow for every three already lent out — against a 52-week low of zero, when the pool ran entirely dry. Cost to borrow is running at 15.1%, elevated by any standard and consistent with a name where bear-side demand has been sustained rather than speculative. Short-side momentum has built steadily over the past month, with estimated shares short up 22% over 30 days to around 2.3 million. The ORTEX short score sits at 78.4, ranking in just the 3rd percentile for short score rank — a signal that the composite of lending tightness, short volume, and positioning is genuinely stressed relative to the broader market. The stock itself has dropped 7.5% on the week to $12.88, extending a month-long slide.
The disagreement between bulls and bears on Polestar is stark. Bears point to the operational reality: gross margin printed at roughly -97% in Q2 2025 — catastrophically worse than the ~6% originally modeled by the Street — and the company has since cut ASP guidance and revenue targets for both 2025 and 2026. Cantor Fitzgerald moved to Underweight earlier this year, and Barclays maintained its Underweight while lifting its target from $1 to $15, a revision that signals a recalibration rather than a recovery thesis. The mean analyst target of $17.50, which is from mid-May, implies meaningful upside from current levels, but that figure predates the stock's most recent leg lower and should be treated cautiously. Bulls point to the South Korea production ramp as the path to restoring margins in the second half, and note that Polestar has secured roughly $2.1 billion in loan facilities to fund the transition. Options positioning is far from panicked — the put/call ratio is running at 0.22, only marginally above its 20-day average of 0.20, suggesting that equity investors are not aggressively hedging into the print, despite the price action.
The insider picture adds a mildly constructive counterweight. Seven directors bought shares in late June and early July at prices ranging from roughly $17 to $21 — all well above the current $12.88. Net insider purchases over the 90-day window total around 27,000 shares worth approximately $490,000. The amounts are modest relative to the company's size, but the breadth of participation across multiple board members is notable. Geely's parent company remains the dominant anchor shareholder at nearly 45% of shares, a structural constraint on the free float and one reason the borrow market stays tight even at relatively modest short-share counts.
The earnings print will test whether the South Korea ramp is generating any meaningful improvement in gross margin, and whether management can narrow the gap between its own delivery guidance and what the Street now considers credible.
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