BWLPG heads into its August 28 earnings release having outrun most of its shipping peers — and with very little evidence that short sellers are positioned for a reversal.
The borrow market tells a story of near-total disengagement by bears. Availability is exceptionally loose at over 1,800% — meaning roughly eighteen shares remain available to borrow for every one already lent out, far above any level that would suggest meaningful short conviction. Cost to borrow has fallen roughly 67% over the past month to just 0.65%, a multi-month low. Short-score readings have edged lower across the past two weeks, now at 28.4 — a level that ranks in the 83rd percentile of the broader universe for being un-shorted, not heavily shorted. Together, these signals describe a stock where bears have largely stepped aside.
Price action confirms the shift in tone. BWLPG has climbed 11% over the past month and added 8% in the past week alone, closing at NOK 233.4 on Tuesday. That outpaces close peers LPG and NVGS, which gained roughly 6% and 4% respectively on the week, and leaves — down 1.8% — a distant laggard. A recent ORTEX note flagged BW LPG as lagging the group on a year-to-date basis, but the latest momentum suggests the gap has been closing fast. The stock's ORTEX combined score recently touched 89.8, with momentum the strongest pillar, as the 50-day moving average has pulled well above the 200-day.
The bull case heading into Thursday rests on a straightforward foundation: LPG shipping rates stayed elevated through the second quarter, and management already indicated in its most recent trading update that fleet utilization and contract renewals are holding up. A June dividend of NOK 5.18 per share underscores the distribution story. The bear case is harder to make on the data available right now — valuation is undemanding at roughly 8x trailing earnings and under 6x EV/EBITDA, and the analyst consensus (where available) skews positive, though the most recent formal target data is too dated to quote with confidence. Insider selling back in March — the CEO and COO both trimmed at prices around NOK 165-170 — looks less ominous given that the stock has since moved nearly 40% higher.
Past earnings have rewarded patience rather than punished it: the most recent print in June produced a 3% gain on the day and an 8% move over the following five sessions, while the March quarter delivered a more modest 2% and 3% respectively. Thursday's release is less a test of whether the LPG cycle is alive and more a test of whether BW LPG can demonstrate that the current rate environment is durable enough to justify a stock that has re-rated sharply higher since those insider sales.
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