MFP heads into its August 27 print with a striking divergence: short sellers are fleeing while the stock races higher — and the chairman is buying in person.
The clearest bullish signal comes from insider activity. Chairman Robert Nerbonne bought 10,900 shares on August 17 at $45.05, committing just under $500,000 of his own capital. That purchase now sits nearly 14% in the money, with the stock closing at $51.47 on August 25 — up 20% on the week alone. The move is notable both for its size relative to the stock's market profile and for its timing, just ten days before the earnings report.
Short sellers have been moving in the same direction. Shares short have dropped 28% over the past week, falling from around 1.94 million to roughly 1.40 million. The borrow market reflects the retreat: cost to borrow has eased to 0.45% and availability is exceptionally loose — nearly 4,800% of current short interest — meaning there is no meaningful squeeze pressure and new shorts face no barriers to entry. Bears aren't being forced out by a tight lending pool; they appear to be closing positions by choice.
The options market tells a more cautious story. The put/call ratio runs at 2.76, well above its 20-day average of 2.54, reflecting persistent demand for downside protection even as the stock surges. That reading is close to matching last week's 52-week high of 3.25. Analyst coverage is thin and freshly initiated: Keybanc launched with a neutral Sector Weight on August 25, while Oppenheimer started in July with an Outperform and a $50 target — now below the current price. The EV/EBITDA multiple of 11.3x has been drifting lower over the past month, suggesting the rally has been price-led rather than estimate-driven.
The prior earnings print, on August 13, produced a 4.2% one-day gain and an 11.9% five-day advance — so the market has recent experience of MFP delivering upside surprises. Whether the chairman's conviction and the short-seller retreat reflect genuine confidence in the upcoming numbers, or whether options traders are right to hedge so heavily, is precisely the question Thursday's print will answer.
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