Short sellers are retreating from ACAD at an unusual pace. Short interest fell 18% in a single session on August 26, dropping to 5.3% of free float — down 21% on the week and 14% over the past month.
The trigger is clear. A wave of analyst price-target raises has swept through the stock in recent weeks. Deutsche Bank lifted its target to $38. Citigroup raised to $40. Needham went to $41. UBS pushed all the way to $49. The consensus mean now stands at $34, against a current price of $30.57. The stock has gained 23% over the past month.
Options traders are telling a more cautious story. The put-call ratio hit 0.35 on August 25 — a z-score of 2.45 standard deviations above its 20-day mean of 0.25. That is the highest reading in weeks. Hedging demand is rising even as the share price climbs. It is an unusual divergence worth watching.
The 52-week PCR range runs from 0.20 to 1.02, so the current 0.35 is far from extreme on an absolute basis. But the velocity of the move — PCR was as low as 0.22 in late July — suggests that options buyers are becoming more defensive as the rally extends.
The cost to borrow has been volatile. It spiked 129% intraday on August 24 before collapsing 77% as short sellers unwound positions. The current CTB sits at 0.45% — low by any measure. Availability stands at 2,464% of short interest. There are roughly 165 million shares available to lend. The borrow market is loose. Short sellers who want out face no friction in exiting.
Several institutions have been adding. BlackRock increased its position by 964,252 shares in the most recent filing period. State Street added 743,441. Dimensional added 539,828. Citadel built a new position of over 1.5 million shares. Baker Bros. remains the dominant holder at 24.9% of shares.
The EPS momentum factor score sits at the 92nd percentile over both 30-day and 90-day windows. The earnings surprise score ranks at the 96th percentile. Recent quarterly results drove a 12.5% one-day gain and a 14.8% five-day gain.
What to watch: Whether options hedging continues to build against the rally trend, and whether short interest — now at 5.3% of float — stabilises or continues its decline toward levels that make a squeeze less likely. Next earnings are scheduled for November 4.
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