Li Auto reports earnings today. The options market is aggressively positioned for upside. The lending market is completely exhausted. Both signals arrived simultaneously — and they point in opposite directions.
The put/call ratio on LI dropped to 0.64 on August 25. That is 22% below its 20-day average of 0.82. The z-score hit -2.68 — a two-standard-deviation move toward bullish options positioning. Two weeks ago the PCR sat above 1.16. The rotation from puts to calls has been sharp and fast. Options traders are betting on an upside earnings surprise.
Li Auto's two most recent earnings prints moved the stock -4.9% and -5.2% on the day-after. Call buyers are fading that recent history.
Short interest jumped 14% in a single session on August 25, reaching 29.1 million shares. That is the highest level in the available daily history. One-week and one-month changes both read above 14% — the acceleration is entirely a last-24-hours event.
The borrow market behind those shorts is fully tapped out. Availability — shares still lendable relative to those already borrowed — stands at just 5.9%. Every additional share borrowed must come from a pool that is nearly empty. The ORTEX utilization rank sits at the 3rd percentile globally. Days to cover runs at 11.77 based on the most recent FINRA print.
These two datasets rarely align like this. Short sellers added aggressively to positions right into the print. Options traders paid up for calls over the same window. One side will be badly wrong.
The prior earnings preview noted availability at 3.8% on August 14. It has since loosened marginally to 5.9% — still historically tight. Cost to borrow eased from ~1.93% earlier in the week to 1.66% today, a modest loosening. That relief has not translated into short covering; the short book grew instead.
The ORTEX short score holds at 63.7, near its recent highs. Factor scores show the eps_momentum_30d rank at the 98th percentile and eps_surprise at the 97th percentile — the fundamental data points toward positive earnings momentum. Analysts remain cautious: the most recent target price cuts from HSBC (to $15.60) and Barclays (to $14.00) both arrived in May–June. The stock trades at $12.27. Mean analyst target is $122.49 — a figure that appears to reflect Hong Kong-denominated estimates and should not be read at face value for the US ADR.
The availability reading into and out of today's print will determine whether the short book faces a covering wave or simply holds. A positive earnings surprise with the borrow pool at 5.9% leaves little room for shorts to absorb losses without scrambling for exits.
See the live data behind this article on ORTEX.
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