Wolfe Research stepped in with an upgrade today. Bears are stepping up too. The data on DT Midstream is pulling in opposite directions — and the gap between them is widening fast.
Wolfe Research analyst Keith Stanley upgraded DTM to Outperform this morning, setting a $145 price target. That's a shift from a neutral Peer Perform stance. The $145 target sits 14.4% above yesterday's close of $126.74.
The consensus is split. Six analysts rate DTM a buy, six a hold. The mean price target stands at $154.40. Jefferies and UBS both have $170 targets. Mizuho cut its target to $147 last month after maintaining Neutral. The bull case rests on a $3.4 billion project backlog — up 50% — and fee-based contracts that insulate cash flows from commodity swings. The bear case points to $3.32 billion in debt and heavy revenue concentration in Haynesville.
The upgrade lands on the same day that short sellers are accelerating. Short interest jumped 16.2% in a single session to 4.8% of free float. Over the past month, SI has risen 24.8%. The stock has fallen 6.6% over the past week and 13% over the past month.
At 4.8% of float, the short position is meaningful but not extreme. The borrow market remains wide open. Availability stands at 668% — roughly six shares available for every one currently borrowed. Cost to borrow is just 0.48%. Shorts are not under pressure.
Options traders are buying protection at an unusual rate. The put-call ratio hit 0.23 on Tuesday — a 2.8 standard deviation spike above the 20-day average of 0.094. For context, DTM typically runs very call-heavy. The PCR rarely breaks 0.10. This jump is notable.
The timing is clear. The PCR was sitting between 0.085 and 0.090 for most of August. It spiked to 0.239 on August 24, the day the stock began its sharper slide, and held at 0.23 on August 25.
Insiders have been modest net buyers. The CFO, Jeffrey Jewell, purchased shares on both August 5 and earlier in May. An independent director added 1,500 shares on August 7 at $132.61. Net insider buying over 90 days totals roughly $240,000 — small in absolute terms, but directionally consistent with the Wolfe upgrade.
Geode Capital added 1.09 million shares as of its latest July filing. ClearBridge Investments added 1.35 million shares as of June 30. BlackRock added 482,000 shares. Those are meaningful institutional builds. On the other side, 59 North Capital trimmed 648,000 shares.
Next earnings are scheduled for October 29. The past two prints saw modest post-earnings moves — down 1.1% and up 1.5% on the day respectively.
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