ICL Group heads into its September 17 earnings release with a stock that has quietly outperformed the fertilizer sector this month, while short sellers have been trimming positions and options traders lean decidedly more bullish than usual.
The options picture is the clearest signal of the current mood. Call activity is running well ahead of puts — the put/call ratio sits at just 0.13, below its 20-day average of 0.14 and far beneath the 52-week high of 0.33. That's options participants expressing conviction in the upside, not hedging against a fall. The reading is mild rather than extreme — a z-score of -0.73 puts it less than a standard deviation from the mean — but the direction is consistent with the stock's recent momentum. ICL has gained 4.3% over the past week and 6.8% over the past month, closing at $5.64 on Tuesday after a modest 1.9% pullback on the day.
Short positioning corroborates the bullish tilt in options. Bears have been quietly stepping back — short interest dropped around 3.4% on the day and 3.4% over the week. The absolute level remains small, with FINRA's fortnightly data putting shares short at roughly 3.6 million, days-to-cover just 2.8. Borrowing costs have also eased from their July peak, running at about 4.2% annually after touching 5.5% in mid-July — still not negligible, but not a signal of intense short-side conviction. Borrow availability remains ample at around 281%, well into the range where the lending market imposes no meaningful constraint on new shorts. The ORTEX short score of 40 places ICL in the bottom third of the universe for short-side pressure, consistent with the rest of the picture.
The fundamental backdrop helps explain why bears are reluctant to press. ICL's Q2 results, released August 5, beat expectations and prompted a 2.3% single-day gain that extended to 6.2% over the following five days — the most recent earnings history shows the stock has rewarded buyers through the post-print window. Looking ahead at valuation, the company trades at roughly 5.8x EV/EBITDA and 12.8x trailing earnings, both of which have nudged lower over the past 30 days as the stock's gains have been partly offset by improving profit estimates. Forward EPS momentum ranks in the 82nd percentile for 12-month improvement, and the dividend score stands at the 93rd percentile — a reminder that ICL pays a meaningful yield in Israeli shekels that attracts income-oriented holders. The ownership structure is notably concentrated: Israel Corporation holds nearly 44% of shares, and the next four largest holders — Israeli funds Migdal, Phoenix, Altshuler Shaham, and Clal — together add another 15%. That ownership anchor keeps the free float tight and limits the pool available for short sellers, partly explaining why availability has never turned scarce despite the borrow cost.
Not all peers are sharing the tailwind. HUN on NYSE slid 5.2% on the week and OLN dropped 6.0%, both underperforming ICL meaningfully. SQM gained 6.4%, and smaller potash name IPI added 3.8% — closer to ICL's own trajectory. The divergence suggests the move in ICL is partly specific rather than a pure sector lift, consistent with the post-Q2 guidance upgrade carrying the stock higher while the broader chemicals complex faces headwinds.
The September 17 print is therefore less about whether ICL can sustain the structural potash and specialty agriculture demand story and more about whether management reaffirms or extends the full-year guidance that drove the August rally — with call buyers clearly positioned for the optimistic scenario.
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