MiniMed Group heads into its September 1 earnings call with a notable divergence: short sellers have been covering while options traders have turned sharply more defensive.
The short-covering story is the clearest trend of the past month. Shares short have fallen roughly 15% over 30 days to around 6.4 million, with another 7.7% coming off in the past week alone. That consistent unwinding suggests at least some bears are stepping aside ahead of the print. Yet the lending market tells a more complicated story. Availability has tightened sharply this week — dropping from around 63% on August 18 to just 21% now, its lowest point in recent weeks and not far above the 52-week floor of 14%. Cost to borrow has surged in parallel, jumping from 0.66% on August 18 to 4.42% today — a move of roughly 565% in seven days. Borrow is becoming meaningfully more expensive even as the overall short position shrinks, which points to a thinning pool of available shares rather than fresh short-side conviction.
Options positioning has shifted decisively in the same cautious direction. The put/call ratio has climbed to 2.71, nearly three standard deviations above its 20-day average of 1.78 — making this one of the most defensively skewed readings of the past year. The jump happened abruptly: the PCR ran below 1.80 through August 20, then lurched to 2.71 on August 21 and held there. That cluster of put-buying aligns almost exactly with the week the stock gave up 5% and the borrow market tightened. Taken together, the borrow squeeze and the put demand describe the same anxiety — investors hedging ahead of the September 1 result even as outright shorts reduce exposure.
The Street's view on MMED is constructive in aggregate but has been retreating on valuation. UBS initiated with a Buy and a $25 target in late July. But Wells Fargo and Bank of America both lowered their targets earlier this summer — Wells Fargo trimming from $26 to $22 in early June, BofA cutting from $27 to $20 in May — while maintaining positive ratings. The mean target across the coverage group sits near $21, implying modest upside from the current $18.92 close. The consensus is technically "sell" per the ORTEX aggregation, reflecting the lone Underperform on the book, but the weight of analyst opinion skews toward Buy and Overweight. On valuation, the P/E has expanded roughly 5 points over the past 30 days to 31.4x — a re-rating driven by the stock's 12% gain over that period rather than earnings upgrades. The ORTEX short score of 75.5 is elevated and has been running in the 74–77 range all month, suggesting the data composite continues to flag meaningful short-side interest relative to peers.
The institutional structure is worth noting, though it constrains the trading float considerably. Medtronic holds 90% of shares outstanding. The freely traded portion is therefore a small fraction of total shares, which helps explain why relatively modest changes in borrow demand can produce sharp moves in availability and cost to borrow. Among the active holders, MFS, Millennium, and Citadel all added shares through June. BlackRock and Geode — likely index-driven — have been building as well. On the insider side, both the CEO and CFO sold shares in late July at prices between $17.67 and $18.15, routine in appearance given the low trade significance scores, but worth noting in the context of the stock now trading near those same levels.
The last earnings report, in June, produced a 14% one-day gain and nearly 20% over five days — the kind of reaction that gives both bulls and bears reason to hedge carefully. The September 1 print is the event to watch, with the borrow market, put positioning, and Street expectations all calibrating around it simultaneously.
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