Why this matters: P reported earnings on August 26. Now three distinct signals are pulling in opposite directions — analysts keep raising targets, put buyers are unusually active, and the lending market has swung wide open.
The put-call ratio closed at 0.80 on August 26. That sits 2.1 standard deviations above the 20-day mean of 0.71. It briefly touched 0.83 on August 25 — the 52-week high.
That spike coincided with earnings day. Options traders loaded up on downside protection exactly when the print landed. The stock had already rallied 46% over the prior month. Some of that put demand looks like hedging against a crowded long.
The rally has continued regardless. The stock gained nearly 6% on August 26. Puts are expensive, and buyers are still buying them.
The analyst upgrade wave that dominated the pre-earnings note has not stopped. Evercore ISI's Amit Daryanani raised his target to $130 on August 24 — his second raise in two weeks. Wedbush moved to $127 on August 21. TD Cowen sits at the top with a $170 target.
The consensus mean is now $115. The stock trades at $108.90. For the first time in weeks, the average analyst target is meaningfully above the tape.
Citigroup upgraded to Buy on August 11. Morgan Stanley went to Overweight on August 10. UBS alone holds a Sell at $70 — a level the stock last saw roughly two months ago.
Cost to borrow fell 62% over the past week to 0.14%. That is the lowest level in the 30-day window in the data. The month-on-month decline is 70%.
Availability stands at the cap — effectively unlimited supply of shares to borrow relative to shares already borrowed. This is not a tight lending market. Short sellers are not being squeezed out. The borrow is cheap and plentiful.
Short interest itself has fallen 13% over the past week to 2.68% of free float. At that level it is not a primary driver of price action. It is worth noting the direction: shorts have been covering into the rally.
Founder John Colgrove remains the loudest skeptic in the holder table. He sold approximately 789,720 shares in the August 13–14 window and still holds 3.4% of the company. That story was covered in the pre-earnings note and has not materially changed.
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