XTB has now added 7.5% this week on top of a 30% monthly surge, closing at PLN 180.84 — a level that sits meaningfully above the analyst mean target of PLN 163, meaning the stock has effectively lapped the Street's expectations on the back of its record H1.
The post-earnings continuation is the most striking feature of this week's tape. Three recent results events bracketed a wide range of reactions: the July 30 print drove a 9.4% one-day move and a 22.6% five-day follow-through; the August 7 release was flat on the day before a 5.8% five-day recovery; an earlier print produced a 5.1% one-day drop. This week's session after the August 28 H1 results call landed firmly in the positive camp — gains extended rather than reversed, despite the record numbers having been widely trailed in preliminary form. The next scheduled event is November 20, giving the market roughly twelve weeks to decide how much of the growth story is already reflected at current levels.
The lending market offers no counterweight to the bulls. Borrow availability is running near 8,800% — approximately 88 shares remain available to lend for every one currently borrowed — a reading that has barely tightened since early summer. That compares to a 52-week low availability of around 537%, itself a loose reading by any standard. Cost to borrow is sub-1% and has drifted lower since a brief spike to above 3% in mid-June. The ORTEX short score sits at 25.4, ranking in the 94th percentile for low short pressure — there is simply no organised short-side thesis competing with the momentum here.
What the Street does offer is a valuation picture that has re-rated sharply. The price-to-earnings multiple has climbed roughly 0.6 turns over the past month to near 11.6x, while price-to-book has risen 1.8 turns over the same period to 7.2x. Those moves reflect the stock's surge rather than earnings estimate upgrades — the 12-month forward EPS growth factor scores only in the 38th percentile, suggesting analysts have not yet fully chased their models higher to match the stock's trajectory. EPS momentum over 30 days, by contrast, ranks in the 98th percentile, and the dividend score sits at the 95th — XTB has historically been a high-payout vehicle, though the most recent dividend data in the system dates to 2022. Among peers this week, SQN gained 6.5% and PBEE added 10.3%, suggesting the broader brokerage and financial services group caught a bid — XTB's 7.5% weekly gain was strong but not an isolated outlier.
The ownership picture is stable and concentrated. Founder Jakub Zablocki holds 35.8% of shares. Norges Bank Investment Management and a cluster of Polish pension and investment funds hold the next tier. BlackRock added roughly 20,000 shares in the period to July 31. There is no sign of distribution from the major holders, and the founder's last significant sale — nearly 9.4 million shares at PLN 78 in May 2025 — was executed at less than half the current price, a fact that sharpens attention on whether any further insider activity emerges as the stock enters new territory.
The question the market now carries into Q3 is whether PLN 180-plus represents fair value for a business earning at record rates, or whether analyst targets — last updated in early August and already stale relative to the stock — need a material upward revision before they become relevant again.
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