Bending Spoons heads into its September 4 earnings report with short sellers building positions at an accelerating pace — and the lending market confirming the demand is real.
The most striking setup feature is the pace of short accumulation. Short shares have climbed roughly 38% over the past month, reaching 15.5 million. That momentum intensified sharply over the final two weeks of August, with the weekly rate of change hitting nearly 13%. The lending market corroborates the pressure: availability has tightened to under 10% of shares outstanding in the lending pool, meaning only one share remains borrowable for every nine already lent out. For much of late July and early August, availability was effectively zero — the lending pool was fully exhausted for nearly two straight weeks. It has since partially reopened, but the borrow market remains firmly in "tight" territory. Cost to borrow, running near 5.6%, has eased from the 7%+ range seen in mid-July but is still elevated enough to impose a real carry cost on bearish positions. The ORTEX short score has ticked up steadily to 67.3, its highest reading in the recent window, reinforcing that the data composite leans bearish. The stock itself is down nearly 5% on the week heading into the print, at $40.50, after a strong 15% monthly run.
The bull and bear debate sharpens around whether the company's post-IPO growth trajectory justifies a rapidly expanding valuation. The stock now trades at roughly 26x trailing earnings, a multiple that has expanded by more than six points over the past month alone — a significant re-rating for a name this new to US markets. Bulls point to the momentum in the SaaS consolidation model and a mean analyst price target of $48.27, representing meaningful upside from current levels. Wells Fargo lifted its target to $48 just yesterday while maintaining its Overweight rating — a fresh vote of confidence ahead of the print. Bears, anchored closer to JPMorgan's Neutral stance and $38 target, question whether the pace of integration and the company's relatively short public track record can sustain the current multiple. The Street is split: several firms initiated coverage in late July with Neutral or In-Line ratings, bracketing the more bullish Outperform calls from Bernstein and Mizuho.
The ownership register adds an interesting dimension. Baillie Gifford holds 15.2% of the class as disclosed via Schedule 13G, while Durable Capital Partners holds 7.3% — both filing as passive holders. Neither has filed a 13D, meaning neither is declaring activist intent, though both are substantial positions in a company where four co-founders still collectively hold over 51% of shares outstanding. That founder concentration means the float is genuinely narrow, which helps explain why the lending pool exhausted so completely in early August. On past earnings reactions, the only prior event on record produced a punishing outcome — the stock fell nearly 20% the following day and extended losses to roughly 18.5% over the ensuing week. That is the single data point the market has to work from.
Thursday's print is therefore less a test of whether Bending Spoons is growing and more a question of whether the company can deliver figures that justify a multiple which has re-rated sharply higher — against a borrow market that is telling you a meaningful cohort is betting it cannot.
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