Occidental Petroleum closes out August having finally rewarded the call-heavy options positioning flagged last week — the stock added 4.3% across the week to $60.95, keeping pace with a broad energy rally.
The call-side lean that looked like conviction last Tuesday has now produced returns. The put/call ratio nudged slightly higher to 0.48 but remains well below its 20-day mean of 0.49, with the z-score sitting at -1.15 — still skewed toward calls relative to recent history, though less extreme than the near-two-standard-deviation reading from earlier in the week. The most notable shift: the prior article flagged a cost-to-borrow spike that was running against the bullish grain. That has now resolved sharply. Borrowing costs fell nearly 48% across the week to just 0.28% — among the lowest readings in the 30-day window. Availability remains effectively unconstrained, with the lending pool far more than sufficient relative to short interest. Bears are not pressing here.
Short interest itself echoes that withdrawal. At 2.2% of free float, it remains low and has fallen roughly 8% over the past month from closer to 2.7% in mid-July. There was a small uptick on the final day of August — shares short rose about 1.4% on the day — but the broader trend is still one of shorts exiting rather than building. The ORTEX short score of 31.7 sits in the 66th percentile for its sector, consistent with moderate rather than meaningful short-side conviction.
The Street broadly backs the move. Most analyst activity after the Q2 print was constructive: Wells Fargo lifted its target to $79, Barclays raised to $75 (before a subsequent trim to $71 mid-August), and Susquehanna moved higher to $70. The mean consensus target is $66.83, implying the stock is now trading roughly 9% below the average Street view at $60.95. Bulls point to improving cash flow, debt reduction progress, and high-return project execution. Bears counter that the production outlook is under pressure and that much of the recovery story is already reflected in the valuation — the stock trades at about 13x trailing earnings and roughly 6x EV/EBITDA, neither stretched nor obviously cheap for an integrated oil name. The analyst recommendation differential factor scores in the 91st percentile, a sign that recent direction of travel among the analyst community has been more positive than for most peers.
The ownership picture adds an important dimension. Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway last disclosed a 32.7% stake via Schedule 13G/A in August 2025 — a passive filing, not a 13D activist position, though at that size the distinction is largely academic. Dodge & Cox held 7.5% as of May 2026, down from 8.8% at the prior filing. Vanguard navigated a structural change: one entity exited below the 5% threshold (filing in March 2026 showing 0% from 8.53%) while a separate Vanguard Capital Management entity filed a fresh 5.51% stake in April 2026. BlackRock filed a 5.2% stake as recently as late July. As always with 13D/G disclosures, positions are as last reported around the 5% threshold — holders who drift below that level need not file again. The weight of large passive and long-only ownership helps explain why short interest has remained structurally low.
Peers broadly moved in the same direction this week. APA led the group with a 7.1% weekly gain. CVX added 5.6%, and CHRD rose 6.9%. COP and OVV were the relative laggards, up 3.3% and 3.4% respectively. OXY's 4.3% gain sits roughly in the middle of the peer distribution — notable given the stock's year-to-date outperformance of around 43-49% already makes it a harder comp.
Next earnings are pencilled in for November 11. That leaves the stock's near-term trajectory more dependent on crude price direction and any update to the production or cost efficiency narrative than on any imminent data catalyst.
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