Nebius Group heads into September with the short-covering narrative that dominated late August now losing momentum — shorts have paused their retreat, the stock is down 10% on the week to $199.54, and the peer group is offering little comfort.
The positioning shift from last week's note is subtle but worth naming. Short interest eased just 0.7% on Tuesday to 24.3% of the free float — roughly 52.9 million shares — down from a peak near 63 million in early August but now barely moving. The bulk of the covering happened in the final days of August; the week-on-week decline of 14% is real, but the daily cadence suggests the flush is largely done. Borrow availability has ticked up further to 43.9%, confirming the lending pool remains looser than at any point mid-month, when availability spent multiple sessions below 5%. Cost to borrow has fallen to 0.75%, less than half the 1.77% reading of August 20. Together, the data describe a borrow market that has deflated rather than one under fresh pressure — availability is tight by any normal standard but no longer at emergency levels. The short score of 69.3 is essentially unchanged from last week's 69.2, consistent with a short book that has stabilised rather than continued to unwind.
Options traders are neutral to slightly cautious. The put/call ratio of 0.92 tracks almost exactly in line with its 20-day mean, producing a z-score near zero — no strong directional lean. That is a change from late August, when calls were running hot and the PCR had dropped well below its average. The 52-week range runs from 0.55 to 1.30; the current reading is squarely in the middle. Whatever convictions options players held about the August post-earnings surge have faded back to baseline.
The Street remains constructive in aggregate but divided on price. The mean analyst target of $286.69 implies roughly 44% upside from current levels. Citigroup raised its target to $324 after the August 12 earnings beat — a print that sent the stock up 32% in a single session — while Baird moved to $340 with an Outperform. DA Davidson, by contrast, held its Neutral stance and lifted the target only to $250, well below the consensus. Piper Sandler initiated at Neutral with a $224 target, almost exactly where the stock trades now. The bull case centres on the $17 billion Microsoft revenue agreement and Nebius's position as a specialist AI compute provider in a fast-growing neocloud market. Bears point to the company's geopolitical overhang from its Russian origins, negative earnings (the PE of -81.9 reflects ongoing losses), and the difficulty of capturing meaningful share in an AIaaS market dominated by much larger players. EPS momentum factor scores rank in the 95th and 98th percentiles for 30-day and 90-day windows respectively — the earnings trajectory is improving fast — but the short score rank of just 5 and utilization rank of 9 confirm the stock remains among the most heavily shorted names in the universe.
The institutional ownership picture adds a layer of intrigue. Goldman Sachs filed a 13G/A in early August disclosing a 10.5% stake — up from 7.2% previously — making it the second-largest holder after founder Arkady Volozh's 10.75%. NVIDIA filed its own 13G in July, disclosing a 9.3% passive stake. Both filings are passive (no 13D activist intent), but the presence of NVIDIA as a near-10% holder in an AI compute rival is an unusual structural feature. Goldman's rapid accumulation to 10.5% from 7.2% in a single reporting period is the more active signal. As always with 13D/G disclosures, these stakes are as-last-reported around the 5% threshold and may have moved since.
The peer backdrop has worsened materially. CORZ fell 10.9% on the week. RIOT dropped 16.5%. BTBT lost 15.2%. WULF was off 10.2%. Every name in the peer cluster finished the week in negative territory, with losses ranging from 9% to 16%. NBIS's 10% decline lands roughly in the middle of that range — not a relative outperformer this week, but not the worst-hit either. The sector is under pressure broadly, and the question heading into next week is whether NBIS's Microsoft-anchored fundamental story provides a floor that pure crypto-infrastructure names lack.
Next earnings are scheduled for November 12. The August print moved the stock 32% higher in a day; the prior comparable moved it 21% lower. With positioning now stabilised and the Street watching whether the Microsoft ramp shows up in revenue run-rates, the November release is the next concrete event that either validates the bull case or hands the remaining 24%-short-interest bears their catalyst.
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