RARE enters September with an unusual split: the Street just raised targets from every direction, yet short sellers have quietly rebuilt their positions to a 30-day high.
The short interest story is the week's central tension. Bears added aggressively around August 24, pushing short interest from roughly 14.8 million shares to more than 16 million — a jump of about 8% on the week and 21% over the month, bringing it to 16.6% of the free float. That is a meaningfully elevated short book for a biotech trading at $25.81. Yet the borrow market tells a calmer story: cost to borrow remains close to zero at 0.47%, and with availability running at over 1,400% — roughly 14 shares available for every one currently lent out — there is ample room for shorts to press further without triggering any squeeze mechanics. The borrow pool, in other words, is loose despite the growing short interest.
Options positioning reinforces the cautious tone, though it has softened from an extreme. The put/call ratio has been running persistently elevated, closing the week at 1.89 against a 20-day average of 1.91 — right in line with recent norms, and well above the 0.32 low touched at the 52-week floor. The ratio was even higher through late July and early August, above 2.5 at one point, so the recent drift lower represents a modest easing of defensive demand. The z-score is essentially flat at -0.16, confirming that options traders are holding steady rather than adding fresh protection.
The Street, meanwhile, moved decisively in the other direction. The past two weeks produced a remarkable string of target upgrades — virtually every major firm that touched RARE raised its number. JP Morgan lifted its target from $75 to $80. Morgan Stanley went from $67 to $74. Canaccord moved to $83, Citigroup to $58, and Cantor Fitzgerald to $103. Wells Fargo took two bites, trimming modestly after Q2 and then nudging back up to $50. No downgrades appeared in the batch. The consensus mean price target now sits at $55.26, more than double the current $25.81 share price — a gap that reflects either a genuinely undervalued name or a Street that hasn't fully updated after the stock's decline. The forward EPS growth factor ranks in the 95th percentile, and analyst recommendation divergence ranks in the 98th percentile, suggesting the bullish conviction on the sell side is unusually concentrated. Against that, the ORTEX short score has crept up to 58.3 from 57.0 two weeks ago, a mild escalation that keeps it in moderate territory rather than at extremes.
The institutional register has seen notable activity. BlackRock disclosed a stake of 8.3%, up from 5.1%, in a July 13G/A filing. RTW Investments — a healthcare-specialist fund — also crossed the 5% threshold and filed a fresh 13G, disclosing a 7.9% position in mid-August. AQR filed a new 13G at 6.66% in August as well. State Street disclosed a 13G at 6.3%, up from 5.1%. All are passive filings — no activist on the register — but the cluster of new 5%-threshold crossings suggests institutional accumulation has been broad following the stock's pullback. The standard caveat applies: 13D/G disclosures are event-driven around the 5% level, and positions may have moved since last filed.
The Q2 print, released August 4, drew a flat reaction on the day — down less than 0.4% — before the stock recovered roughly 7.8% over the following week, consistent with a results beat that the bears couldn't immediately refute. The next earnings event is scheduled for November 3. Between now and then, the key watch is whether the short book at 16.6% of float continues to climb despite the loose borrow conditions, or whether the Street's target-upgrade cycle eventually pulls institutional flows that outpace the short build.
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