Telix Pharmaceuticals enters September with a stock down 5.5% on the week yet carrying a month-long gain of 7.5% — a split picture that captures the tug-of-war between improving fundamentals and a short book that refuses to go away.
The clearest story in the data is the gradual unwinding of short positions. Short interest has fallen roughly 11% over the past month, dropping from around 39.6 million shares in late July to 35.4 million now — equivalent to 10.4% of the free float. That is still a meaningfully elevated level for an ASX-listed biotech, but the direction of travel matters: shorts have been covering consistently for six weeks. The borrow market reinforces that the retreat is orderly rather than forced. Availability runs at roughly 187%, meaning there are nearly two shares available to lend for every one currently borrowed — a comfortable, uncrowded lending pool. Cost to borrow is around 2%, down slightly on the week though up around 22% over the month, oscillating in a narrow band rather than spiking. Nothing in the borrow market points to a squeeze setup.
The ORTEX short score, however, pushes back against any straightforward bullish read on the covering. At 77.3, the score has barely moved in two weeks — it has been pinned in a tight range between 77.2 and 77.5 throughout late August. A score at this level indicates that, on a relative basis, bearish positioning in TLX remains near the high end of the universe. The short score ranking falls in just the 5th percentile — meaning TLX ranks among the most heavily short-positioned names tracked by ORTEX. Days-to-cover rank sits at the 7th percentile. Shorts are covering, but the residual position is still large.
The Street is more optimistic than the short book. The analyst consensus is a buy, with eight formal buy ratings, four outperform calls, and only three holds — no sell ratings on record. The mean price target of A$23.43 implies roughly 53% upside from Tuesday's close of A$15.27, a gap that is either a substantial opportunity or a sign that targets have not caught down to the stock's recent drift from its highs. It is worth noting that the consensus data reflects coverage last updated in late August, and the last earnings print — released around August 20 — sent the stock down 7.2% the following day, erasing a small initial bounce. The 5-day reaction was also negative at -7.5%. That print appears to have been the catalyst for the stock's recent weakness, even as the longer covering trend pre-dates it.
Valuation carries the complexity expected of a pre-peak-earnings biotech. The EV/EBITDA multiple has expanded noticeably, moving up roughly 7.6 turns over the past month to 66.6x — a function of the stock recovering through August even as earnings momentum metrics slipped. The EPS momentum factor scores rank in just the 2nd percentile on a 30-day basis and the 4th percentile on 90 days, pointing to downward revisions in near-term earnings estimates. The EPS surprise factor sits higher at the 77th percentile, suggesting the company has historically beaten expectations, but the most recent print clearly disappointed the market.
Ownership adds a layer of structural context. JPMorgan Chase held 8.96% of shares as of late July, a stake that grew by over 4 million shares in the reported period. Founder and CEO Christian Behrenbruch holds 6.4% and made two open-market purchases in late April — around A$14.87 and A$14.48 — totalling roughly A$712,000 combined. Those buys came near current levels, and the fact that the stock is trading back in the same range now gives those purchases a different complexion than they had when the stock was briefly higher. His 13G filing from February 2025 disclosed a 6.97% stake at that time; both that position and co-founder Andreas Kluge's 6.78% holding are passive disclosures, and given the filings are now over 18 months old, current stakes may differ.
With the next earnings event scheduled for mid-October, the next six weeks will test whether the slow covering trend can continue against a backdrop of weak near-term EPS momentum and a stock that has already shown it can fall hard on results day.
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