UBER enters September having given back most of last week's rebound — down 6.4% to $75.24 — yet the options market is telling a surprisingly constructive story about where investors think it goes from here.
The most striking feature of this week's setup is the divergence between the price action and options positioning. The put/call ratio has fallen to 0.84, now running below its 20-day average of 0.88 — a full standard deviation below the mean. That is the least defensive options posture UBER has shown in recent weeks. Just over a week ago, the prior note described the PCR easing back from elevated levels following the August 5 earnings print; it has continued fading further since. The 52-week range runs from 0.60 to 1.20, so the current reading is broadly neutral, but the direction of travel — call volume outpacing puts even as the stock falls — is notable. Lending conditions reinforce the relaxed mood: availability is extraordinarily loose at roughly 68 times the current short position, borrow costs have fallen 12% over the week to just 0.22%, and short interest at 2.3% of the free float has drifted about 3% lower over the past week. There is no structural pressure from the short side, no squeeze dynamic, and no meaningful change from the picture described last week.
The Street remains firmly in the bull camp, though targets have moderated since the August earnings print. Rosenblatt initiated coverage this week with a Buy and a $100 target — a fresh vote of confidence at current levels. Most of the post-earnings target adjustments clustered in the $89-$110 range, with Jefferies the outlier raising to $110 while Wells Fargo trimmed to $89 and Bernstein cut to $95. The consensus mean sits at $101.81, implying roughly 35% upside from the current price. The bull case centres on Uber's autonomous vehicle partnerships and platform aggregation advantage; the bear case flags the slow build of AV supply and intensifying delivery competition globally. The EPS surprise factor score ranks in the 84th percentile — the company has a strong track record of beating estimates — though forward earnings growth expectations are more modest, ranking just 37th percentile on 12-month forward year-on-year EPS increase.
The most recent earnings history adds useful context on how the stock tends to behave around results. The August 5 print produced an initial 2.1% drop on the day, followed by a 4.7% recovery over the subsequent five sessions. The print before that saw a 4.8% day-one decline and a 9.7% five-day recovery. Both instances suggest the stock has absorbed bad initial reactions and bounced — a pattern the options market may be pricing in ahead of the next event, currently scheduled for November 3.
The peer group is moving in a similar direction. LYFT fell 5% over the week, GRAB dropped 3.4%, and both are tracking Uber's pullback closely. Uber's relative resilience — modest as it is — continues to reflect the platform diversification advantage flagged in the earlier peer note. The watch now is whether the call-heavy options positioning reflects genuine conviction or simply a mechanical hedge unwind; the November earnings date gives that question roughly eight weeks to resolve.
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