BULL has absorbed its August 28 earnings report and settled into an uneasy equilibrium — up 2% on the week but still 3.7% lower on Tuesday alone, while the newly initiated analyst coverage arrives with a target barely above where the stock already trades.
The most telling development this week is on the Street. Scotiabank launched coverage on September 2 with a Sector Outperform rating but a $9.00 price target — essentially where BULL closed at $9.13. That is a curious entry point for an initiating bull: the implied upside is negligible. Rosenblatt's Chris Brendler, the stock's more committed advocate, held his $15.00 Buy rating firm after the earnings print, having raised his target from $13 to $15 on August 20. The gap between those two views — $9 versus $15 — captures the Street's uncertainty neatly. The consensus sits at Buy, but with only two analysts on record, that consensus is thin. EPS momentum is the strongest card in the bull deck: the momentum factor ranks in the 98th percentile over 30 days and the 97th over 90 days, with EPS surprise landing in the 90th percentile. The earnings print on August 19 drove an 11.6% one-day gain and held a 10.7% five-day gain, which validated the growth thesis in the near term. The next event is not until November 19, so the stock now has to find its own level.
Positioning tells a relatively relaxed story compared to where BULL was in mid-August. Short interest has drifted slightly lower — 6.2% of free float at around 26 million shares, down from the 26.9 million that characterised most of the prior month. More striking is the change in the borrow landscape. Availability now runs at over 1,500%, meaning roughly fifteen shares are available in the lending pool for every one currently borrowed. That is dramatically looser than the 350–480% range that prevailed through mid-August, and a world apart from the 52-week tightest reading of just 1.3%. Cost to borrow has ticked up 31% on the week to 0.41%, but in absolute terms that remains a trivially low rate — still well under half a percent annually. The ORTEX short score has eased to 45.5 from around 53 three weeks ago, consistent with a borrow market that has opened up considerably. Options lean heavily toward calls: the put/call ratio of 0.18 is near the low end of its annual range, sitting only modestly above its 20-day average and well below the 52-week high of 0.54. There is no evidence of hedging demand building here.
The ownership picture has some nuance worth tracking. BlackRock added 6.8 million shares in the period through July 31, lifting its stake to 4.3% of shares. Azora Capital appeared as a new holder with 6.5 million shares as of June 30. On the other side, the President's August 25 sale of 54,000 shares at $8.83 — disclosed in our last note — remains the most recent insider data point, and was executed under a 10b5-1 plan, which reduces its signalling weight. The 13D/G register shows no activist presence; all large filers are passive 13G holders. The largest, Wang Anquan, holds 18.2% as last disclosed in April — his stake has edged slightly lower across successive amendments. As always with 13D/G data, these positions are as last disclosed around the 5% threshold and may not reflect current holdings.
Peers had a rougher week than BULL. IBKR fell 7.9% and HOOD lost 7.7%. COIN dropped 5.5%. Against that backdrop, BULL's 2% weekly gain looks more creditable than it might appear in isolation — the broader digital brokerage and crypto-adjacent group sold off while Webull held most of its post-earnings bounce.
The next earnings date is November 19. Between now and then, the gap between Scotiabank's $9 target and Rosenblatt's $15 is where the debate lives — and whether the revenue momentum that drove Q3 2025 and the August 2026 beat can hold through a quarter that the bear case suggests will face crypto and retail headwinds.
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