Why this matters: Amphenol shares have fallen nearly 50% in one month. The options market just printed its most bearish reading in 52 weeks. Short sellers are piling in.
The put-call ratio hit 3.94 on September 3. That is the highest level in a full year. The 20-day average PCR was 0.96. The z-score is 4.36 — an extreme statistical outlier. Traders are buying puts at a rate nearly four times the volume of calls. The prior month's PCR readings sat in a tight band between 0.75 and 0.84. The September 3 print breaks that range by a factor of nearly five.
Short interest jumped 89% in a single day. As of September 3, 28 million shares are short — 2.29% of the free float. A month ago, the figure was closer to 16.8 million. The cost to borrow doubled over the week to 0.48%. That remains historically low for this name. Availability is effectively uncapped — over 776 million shares remain available to borrow. There is no borrow squeeze here. New shorts face no friction entering positions.
The price close on September 3 was $82.07. One month ago, the stock was trading near $163. Analysts raised targets as recently as July 30. UBS took its price target to $197. BNP Paribas went to $215. Citigroup lifted to $210. The consensus mean target sits at $192 — more than double the current price. That gap is extraordinary. Either analysts have not revised post-crash, or the market is pricing in something structurally damaging that consensus has not yet absorbed.
The next earnings date is October 28. That event will be pivotal.
Insider data through August 6 shows net selling of $180 million over 90 days. The CFO, Craig Lampo, exercised and sold 193,200 shares on August 4 at roughly $167. The EVP of Human Resources sold 120,000 shares on August 5 at $174. These were exercise-and-sell transactions — not discretionary open-market sales — but the timing, just weeks before a 50% collapse, is notable context.
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