OXY Bears Reverse Course as Three Signals Align

Why this matters: Nine days ago, the borrowing market for Occidental Petroleum looked benign — costs had collapsed to near-zero and short interest was drifting lower. That picture has reversed sharply. Three distinct ORTEX signals now point in the same direction: bears are building positions, paying more to do so, and hedging through options at the same time.

Converging Signals

Short interest is moving fast. SI hit 2.82% of free float on September 10 — up 15.3% in a single day and 23% over the week. That still places OXY in the low-SI category in absolute terms, but the velocity is notable. A month ago, shorts were below 2.2% of float. The last previous article noted that short interest had "fallen roughly 8% over the past month." That trend has now fully reversed.

Borrowing costs have tripled in a week. Cost to borrow stood at 0.147% on September 3. It hit 0.41% by September 10 — a 181% weekly increase. The absolute level remains low, but the direction is unambiguous. This is the same dynamic flagged in early September and then resolved; it has now re-emerged with greater persistence across multiple days.

Availability is tightening fast — but remains very loose. The lending pool is still abundant. Availability sits at roughly 2,011% — meaning for every share currently borrowed, there are roughly 20 times as many still available. That has fallen sharply from above 9,999% just one week ago. The borrow market is not under stress. But the direction of travel is clear: demand for borrows is rising faster than it has in months.

Options sentiment has shifted. The put/call ratio reached 0.523 on September 10, sitting 1.8 standard deviations above its 20-day mean. This follows a sustained period of call-side lean flagged in the prior article. The reversal is consistent with increased hedging demand — traders buying protection as the bearish lending signals emerged.

Corroborating Context

The analyst community remains constructive overall. Seaport Global initiated OXY at Buy with a $73 target on September 3 — the same week the short-interest rebuild began. Wells Fargo raised its target to $79 on August 7. The consensus sits at Hold, with a mean price target of $67.12 against a current price near $61.16, implying roughly 10% upside.

Berkshire Hathaway remains the dominant holder at 26.5% of shares (as last disclosed). BlackRock added 3.2 million shares in the period ending August 31. Invesco added 5 million shares. Large institutional holders are not running.

The ORTEX short score has nudged higher — from 31.4 in late August to 33.3 by September 9. That's a modest move and the score remains well below levels that would signal elevated squeeze or squeeze risk.

Data Summary

• SI % of Free Float: 2.82% (Sept 10), up from 2.29% one week prior
• SI 1-day change: +15.3% | 1-week change: +23%
• Cost to borrow: 0.41% (Sept 10), up 181% week-over-week
• Availability: ~2,011% — loose, but falling rapidly from 9,999%+ one week ago
• Put/call ratio: 0.523, z-score +1.78 vs 20-day mean
• Short score: 33.3 (Sept 9), rising from 31.4 in late August
• Stock price: $61.16 (Sept 10), up ~0.9% on the week
• Next earnings: November 10, 2026