AVAV Bears Double Down After Earnings Miss

Why this matters: AeroVironment bounced 4.4% on September 10. Short sellers used that bounce to press harder. Three distinct signals now align against the rally.

Short Interest Breaks to New High

SI hit 10.0% of free float on September 10. That's an 18% single-day jump — the sharpest one-day increase in the past month. Over the full week, short interest climbed 22.7%.

To put that in context: SI was sitting near 8.2% ahead of the September 9 earnings print. The stock fell 1.2% on that report. Shorts didn't cover. They added.

The borrow market reflects that. Availability stands at 44.6% — tight territory, meaning roughly one share remains available for every two already lent out. That's down from 52% a week ago. Cost to borrow jumped 60% week-on-week to 0.94%, the highest since late August. Demand for borrows is now repricing into the lending market.

The ORTEX short score sits at 65.9, its highest reading in the data window shown, and places AVAV in the 6th percentile for bearishness across the coverage universe.

Options Confirm the Bearish Skew

The put-call ratio reached 0.77 on September 10 — a 52-week high. The 20-day mean PCR is 0.70. The current reading sits 2.78 standard deviations above that mean.

Options traders are not fading the short thesis. They're reinforcing it. The PCR has risen in six of the last seven sessions.

Analysts Hold Targets, But the Gap Is Wide

Five analyst actions dropped on September 10. JP Morgan raised its target from $200 to $210 (Overweight). UBS lifted from $166 to $170 (Neutral). Citizens, Needham, and BTIG all reiterated existing ratings.

The consensus target stands at $224. The stock trades near $147. That implies 52% upside on the analyst consensus — yet the lending and options data tell a different story about near-term sentiment.

The next earnings event is September 24. The last two prints produced moves of -1.2% and -8.0% respectively.

An Activist Stake, Trimming

Altitude V Holdings holds a 13D position as last disclosed — 13.5% of the class, down from 14.7% previously. That trim, from the June 24 amendment, coincides with a period of broad selling pressure across the name. Activist stakes are event-driven disclosures; the current level reflects their position as of that filing date.

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• SI % FF: 10.0% (18% one-day rise, 22.7% one-week rise)
• Availability: 44.6%, down from ~52% a week ago
• Cost to borrow: 0.94%, +60% week-on-week
• PCR: 0.77 — 52-week high, z-score 2.78
• Short score: 65.9 (6th percentile bearishness rank)
• Next earnings: September 24