Workiva heads into its September 15 earnings release with short sellers steadily retreating and the analyst community growing more optimistic — a rare alignment ahead of a print.
The clearest positioning shift is in short interest. Bears have been cutting exposure at an accelerating pace. SI has fallen almost 30% over the past month to 7.9% of the free float — still a meaningful level for a mid-cap software name, but the direction is unambiguous. The move has been sharpest in the last two sessions, with a 15% single-day drop on September 10 alone. Borrow conditions confirm there's no stress in the lending market: cost to borrow has drifted down to 0.42%, and availability is extremely loose at over 2,700% — meaning shares remain effortlessly available for anyone who still wants to build a short. The ORTEX short score has also pulled back meaningfully, dropping from the low-53 range to 49.4 this week, crossing below the neutral 50 threshold. That move signals deteriorating conviction on the short side rather than any squeeze dynamic.
Options traders are modestly more cautious than usual, though not alarmingly so. The put/call ratio has crept up to 0.99, slightly above its 20-day average of 0.84, but the z-score of 0.60 keeps it well within a normal range. The stock fell 6.1% on the week — broadly in line with peers, where dropped nearly 15%, lost more than 30%, and shed around 10%. That context matters: WK's drawdown looks measured rather than stock-specific, suggesting the pullback reflects sector-wide pressure heading into the print rather than any fresh Workiva-specific concern.
The analyst debate centres on growth sustainability. Bulls point to Workiva's AI-integrated platform, expanding European footprint, strong customer retention, and margin progress as evidence the business is re-accelerating — Baird raised its target to $95 from $74 on September 1, and BTIG followed on September 11, lifting to $80 from $70 while reiterating Buy. The consensus mean target is $86.50 against a current price of $71.86, implying roughly 20% upside on the Street's central case. Bears counter that net retention rate deceleration is real, billings growth is lumpy, and the mix shift toward new customer wins rather than expansion means near-term revenue visibility is harder to read. On valuation, the P/E has compressed toward 18.6x and EV/EBITDA is trending lower over the past 30 days — multiples that are no longer extreme for a profitable software name, which removes one layer of the prior bear case.
One institutional note worth flagging: Jericho Capital filed a fresh Schedule 13G in August disclosing a 6.6% stake — a new passive disclosure that adds a notable growth-focused buyer to the register. BlackRock's position also increased by more than 870,000 shares in the most recently reported period. Neither signals activist intent, but the directional flow is additive. (As always with 13D/G filings, positions are as-last-disclosed around the 5% threshold and may have since changed.)
The earnings report will test whether Workiva's Q3 numbers confirm that the net retention and billings pressures flagged by bears are timing effects — or a more persistent drag on the growth trajectory that has justified the stock's re-rating from its February lows.
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