CD Projekt's Short Score Eases, but the Rebound Feels Fragile

CD Projekt Red has clawed back 1.5% on the week to close at PLN 235.4, but the short score that has defined this name since August remains stubbornly elevated — and the stock is still down nearly 10% on the month.

The most notable shift this week is a modest softening in the ORTEX short score. It printed at 70.6 on September 11, down from 72.1 on August 31 and the peak of 72.5 seen just before the September 2 earnings release. That is a genuine easing — roughly two points over two weeks — but it remains well above levels that would signal a clean resolution to the bearish setup. The score still ranks in just the 5th percentile on short score across the ORTEX universe, meaning the signal reads as elevated in absolute terms even as it gently retreats. The question raised in last week's note — whether the elevated score reflected pre-earnings anxiety or something more structural — has not yet been answered cleanly by the data.

The lending market continues to sit in a completely different timezone from the short score. Availability has actually loosened substantially over the past week, jumping 16% to nearly 600% — meaning roughly six shares are available to borrow for every one currently on loan. That is well into comfortable territory, and cost to borrow remains low at just under 0.80%, barely changed on the week. The 52-week availability floor is 215%, so even at the tightest point of the past year the borrow pool was never close to stressed. There is no squeeze pressure here. The bear camp faces no friction getting into or maintaining positions, but equally no structural force pushing them out.

The Street picture is more supportive than the short score implies. The analyst consensus price target sits at PLN 236.98, fractionally above the current close — a near-zero implied return that suggests the Street has largely priced in the post-earnings weakness rather than turning outright negative. Factor scores offer a more interesting divergence: EPS surprise ranks in the 81st percentile, and the 12-month forward EPS growth score also sits at 81 — both pointing to a company whose earnings delivery has been better than feared, even as momentum has deteriorated. The dividend score, at 93rd percentile, is a curiosity given the last actual dividend was paid in 2022 and there is no current yield signal worth trading on. That ranking likely reflects historical consistency rather than near-term income appeal.

Peer performance adds some context to the week's mild recovery. EMBRAC B surged nearly 8% on the week, and UBI added 7.5% — two names with higher gaming-sector beta that outpaced CDR's 1.5% bounce. Closer Warsaw-listed peers CIG fell 0.6% and 11B was roughly flat, suggesting the modest CDR rebound was neither a sector-wide move nor purely idiosyncratic. The institutional register offers little fresh signal: co-founders Marcin Iwinski and Michal Kicinski collectively hold around 23% and have reported no changes. BlackRock added 150,000 shares as of end-August, a small but directionally positive footnote from the largest external institutional name.

The next scheduled earnings event is November 24. Between now and then, the tension worth tracking is whether the short score continues its gradual descent back toward neutral — which would require sustained price recovery — or whether the two-week softening stalls as the stock struggles to reclaim its pre-earnings levels convincingly.