TTWO: Bears Pile In, But Options Traders Aren't Convinced

Short sellers added aggressively to Take-Two Interactive positions last week. Options traders are voting the other way. The divergence is the story heading into Wednesday's earnings.

Short Interest Jumps 29% in a Week

Short interest hit 4.59% of free float as of September 11. That's up 28.8% in a single week — the bulk of the move arriving in one day on September 10.

The prior note noted SI at 3.6% of float. It has now risen meaningfully. The stock is down roughly 14% over the past month, trading at $215.47 against an average analyst target of $286.

The borrow market remains extremely relaxed despite the SI jump. Availability stands at 4,855% — roughly 183 million shares available to borrow against the current short position. There is no squeeze pressure here. Cost to borrow has also fallen sharply, down 41% over the past month to just 0.30%. Shorts are paying almost nothing to hold positions.

Options Tell a Different Story

The put-call ratio dropped to 0.64 on September 11. That's 2.1 standard deviations below the 20-day mean of 0.72. Calls are dominating options flow. The PCR hasn't been this skewed toward calls in over two weeks.

The contrast with rising short interest is notable. Equity shorts are adding. Options traders are buying calls. Both crowds cannot be right when earnings land on September 17.

What the Analysts Say

Eight firms raised or maintained targets following the August earnings print, which delivered a +9.1% one-day move. JP Morgan assumed coverage at Overweight with a $310 target. BTIG sits at $313. The consensus sits at $286 — a 33% premium to the current price.

The bull case centres on GTA VI, due in November. The bear case is execution risk and the long investment cycle. The 90-day insider record remains net negative — the CFO and CLO sold in early September under 10b5-1 plans, while CEO Strauss Zelnick's August 10 sales at $252–$255 were discretionary. The stock now trades $40 below those levels.

Data Summary

• SI % of Free Float: 4.59% (up 28.8% week-on-week)
• Availability: 4,855% — extremely loose borrow market
• Cost to Borrow: 0.30%, down ~41% over one month
• Put-Call Ratio: 0.64, −2.1 standard deviations vs. 20-day mean
• Consensus Price Target: $286.44
• Next Earnings: September 17, 2026
• Last earnings move: +9.1% (1-day), +6.2% (5-day)