Millicom International Cellular enters mid-September with an unusual combination of signals: a 49.5% activist stake, two freshly announced special dividends, and short sellers moving out at their fastest pace in months — all while the Street sits squarely on the fence.
The most newsworthy fact on TIGO right now is the activist register. Atlas Investissement SAS — filing under Schedule 13D, which signals active intent rather than passive ownership — disclosed a 49.5% stake in its most recent filing dated June 29, up from 46.7% previously. This is a concentrated, escalating position. With the entity filing 12 times since first appearing on the register in March 2025, this is not a passive accumulator. The standard caveat applies: 13D/G stakes are as-last-disclosed around the 5% threshold, and movements below that level need not be re-filed. But at 49.5%, Atlas is not about to slip quietly below any disclosure floor. Combined with Dodge & Cox holding another 10.1% and Capital Research adding over two million shares in the most recent quarter, the free float available to trade is genuinely thin.
The short side tells a story of retreat. Short interest dropped roughly 18% over the past week — a move that brings the position down to just under 2% of free float, the lowest level in the 30-day window tracked here. The borrow market reflects this: cost to borrow is a negligible 0.54%, and availability is running at 157%, meaning there are comfortably more shares available to lend than there are shorts currently in place. That is a loose borrow market by any measure, and well above this stock's 52-week tightest point near 76%. The ORTEX short score has also drifted down from around 52 at the start of September to just under 50 — mid-range, and moving in the wrong direction for bears. Short sellers appear to be walking away rather than adding conviction into the activist overhang.
Options traders are not particularly exercised either. The put/call ratio is 0.23, barely above its 20-day average of 0.22 and a fraction of a standard deviation from the mean. Relative to the 52-week high of 0.62, options positioning looks almost serene. The market is not pricing downside protection here.
The Street's collective view is cautious but not hostile. The consensus sits at hold, with five analysts aligned there. The most notable recent move came from JP Morgan in August, where analyst Marcelo Santos raised the target from $100 to $105 while simultaneously downgrading the rating from Overweight to Neutral — a pattern that often signals "the easy money has been made." UBS and Scotiabank have also lifted targets in recent months, though Scotiabank remains at Sector Underperform despite raising its number to $60.10, a figure that sits well below TIGO's current $95.82 price. The mean target of $98.39 implies only modest upside from here, and the valuation picture is consistent with that read: EV/EBITDA at 5.7x has eased slightly over 30 days, while the P/E at 15.1x has drifted up a little. The 90-day forward EPS momentum factor scores in the 80th percentile, suggesting analysts have been revising estimates higher — but the 30-day EPS momentum reading collapsed to the 10th percentile, pointing to a more recent stall.
Millicom also announced two special dividends on August 25, each of $0.75 per share, payable in January and April 2027. For a stock that had suspended dividends entirely during its deleveraging phase, this is a meaningful signal of management confidence in the balance sheet — and probably part of the reason short sellers are not pressing their case. The next earnings event is scheduled for November 5. The most recent print, in early August, drove the stock up nearly 12% in a single day. The print before that produced a 5.8% gain. The one before that was a 1.3% loss. Three of the four most recent earnings events produced positive next-day moves, with an average single-day gain close to 5.5% across all four — context that will matter as November approaches and positioning firms up.
Closest peer VEON on Nasdaq gained over 6% on the week versus TIGO's fractional decline, while Brazilian peer TIMS3 added nearly 3% and América Móvil ticked up around 2%. TIGO lagged the peer group this week despite its stronger year-to-date run. The question heading into November is whether the activist pressure, the dividend restart, and the improving earnings trajectory are fully reflected in a stock up 74% year-to-date — or whether Atlas Investissement's continued stake-building signals further corporate action ahead.
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