Fed Hikes 25bps — Markets Take It in Stride

Macro Sets the Tone

The Federal Reserve delivered a 25 basis point rate hike today. US equity futures rose anyway. S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq 100 contracts all gained after the decision. That tells a clear story — markets had priced this move in fully. The bigger question now shifts to the Bank of Japan, which meets next. The Fed hike sent the yen lower in early trading, adding pressure on Tokyo ahead of that decision.

Across the Atlantic, Europe is dealing with its own macro noise. A brutal summer heatwave wiped out 3.1 million tonnes of potatoes across the continent — roughly €620 million worth of agricultural output. Food cost pressures will linger heading into autumn.

Chips and Big Tech

NVDA CEO Jensen Huang spoke at an AI summit today. He put AI safety front and centre. Nvidia remains the focal point for both bulls and bears. Options flow shows heavy put activity on the stock over the past week. Bears are also piling into AMD and MU, both of which have rallied aggressively year-to-date. Meanwhile, ARM and SNAP are in focus after the Fed call.

Earnings on Deck

LEN reports Q3 results Thursday. Housing data will be closely watched against the rate backdrop. GNRC is also in focus this session.

Miners and Metals Get a Boost

Gold and copper analysts turned more bullish today. RBC raised its target on NEM to $155 and lifted FCX to $85. Elevated metal prices are doing the work. PSX also got a target raise from BMO Capital, up to $310.

Short Sellers Stay Aggressive

Bears aren't backing down. LCID short interest hit 50.1% of free float this week — up nearly 15 points in seven days. CHWY sits at 72.6%, with days to cover at 3.3. Squeeze risk is real at those levels.