BALL is drawing conflicting signals today. JP Morgan upgraded the stock to Overweight just hours ago — the same analyst who cut it in August. Meanwhile, short sellers have been quietly building positions all month.
Jeffrey Zekauskas at JP Morgan upgraded BALL to Overweight this morning, maintaining his $65 price target. The move reverses his August 5 downgrade to Neutral, which came on the same day the stock fell 2.5% after earnings. His return to Overweight implies roughly 7% upside from Wednesday's close of $60.75.
He is not alone in staying constructive. Wells Fargo holds an Overweight with a $72 target. B of A Securities rates it Buy at $73. RBC Capital carries an Outperform with the street-high target of $77.
The bull case centres on Ball's dominant market share in metal cans, energy drink volume growth, and margin expansion from specialty cans and contract renewals. Bears point to rising aluminum costs, higher floating-rate debt, and declining carbonated soft drink volumes.
Short interest hit 3.1% of free float as of September 17 — the highest level since early September. That is a 12.4% week-on-week increase and a 23% rise over the past month.
The build is notable in context. Short interest at 3.1% of float is moderate but directionally aggressive. Borrowing remains easy: availability stands at 3,173% — roughly 31 shares available for every one currently borrowed. Cost to borrow is just 0.45%, down 17% over the past month. Shorts face no financing pressure here.
The ORTEX short score has drifted higher, rising from 33.8 on September 7 to 36.7 today — a steady climb as the borrow demand builds.
Thursday's options flow added another wrinkle. The put-call ratio hit 0.9987 — 3.8 standard deviations above the 20-day mean of 0.872. That reading is driven by heavier-than-usual put buying, sitting at the high end of recent ranges though still well below the 52-week high of 1.25.
The jump is notable given the PCR had been remarkably stable, barely moving off 0.87–0.89 for the prior three weeks. Something shifted in the options market on the same day JP Morgan upgraded.
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