Tariffs, Chips, and a Packed Earnings Diary

Macro: Tariff Refunds in the Spotlight

Senators are pressing Trump trade representative Jamieson Greer on $166 billion in tariff refunds — and asking how consumers will see any of it. The hearing landed on the radar of WMT and GM watchers alike. Retailers and automakers face continued pressure on margins. The question of pass-through to consumers is unresolved.

Semiconductors: Bulls and Bears Both Dig In

Chip stocks are the most contested trade right now. NVDA is caught in a tug-of-war. California Governor Newsom moved to assert the state's data center regulations, pushing back on federal deregulation. That adds policy noise to an already crowded options tape. MU and AMD both carry heavy negative options flow. Michael Burry's short position on memory names is keeping bears engaged. Yet META posted the most bullish options flow of any large-cap, with RSI at 77.8. The AI bull case has not collapsed — it has just split into winners and losers.

Earnings: Costco Week Is Here

Costco reports Q4 2026 Thursday after the close. It is the $397bn anchor of a busy stretch. AutoZone and KB Home both report Tuesday. General Mills and Darden Restaurants round out Thursday. Options on PAYX show strong call skew into today's print. IRDM faces its own print tomorrow with an activist stake already on the table.

Analysts: HSBC Breaks With the Pack on Netflix

HSBC cut NFLX from Buy to Hold, slashing its target 21% to $76. That breaks sharply from Wall Street's 35-analyst Buy consensus. Construction aggregates got the opposite treatment — VMC and MLM both upgraded, with analysts backing a US infrastructure spending recovery.