VEON Options Flash Bullish Extreme as Cost to Borrow Spikes

VEON enters the final week of September carrying a sharp tension: the options market has swung to its most aggressively bullish posture of the past year, even as borrowing costs have surged almost 100x from where they sat a month ago.

The options signal is the standout this week. The put/call ratio has collapsed to 0.16 — its lowest level in the past 52 weeks, which ran as high as 2.21 — and that reading sits more than two standard deviations below the 20-day average of 0.37. That kind of PCR compression points to unusually heavy call-side positioning: traders are buying upside, not hedging downside. The shift has been rapid; as recently as mid-August the PCR was running above 0.60, meaning the options skew has essentially flipped in five weeks. With the stock up nearly 17% over the past month and closing at $69.37, the momentum has clearly caught options traders' attention.

The borrow market tells a more complicated story. Cost to borrow has rocketed to 6.1%, roughly double where it was a week ago and a world away from the near-zero levels (0.07–0.87%) that prevailed through most of August. That move — nearly 3,600% over 30 days — is dramatic, though borrow availability remains overwhelmingly loose: over 4,400% of short interest is available in the lending pool, well above the 52-week floor of 890%, which means there is no squeeze dynamic at work. Short interest itself is negligible at 0.30% of the free float, barely changed on the week. The CTB spike reflects shifts in supply and demand at the margins of the borrow market, not a building short conviction. The days-to-cover figure from the latest FINRA settlement (2.57 days) confirms the short book is thin.

The ownership structure deserves attention on this name. LPE Middle East Limited — part of the Letterone complex controlled by Mikhail Fridman's investment group — filed a Schedule 13D/A as recently as December 2025, declaring a 45.5% stake. That activist filing is on record and carries the standard caveat that disclosed stakes are event-driven snapshots; positions can change without a further filing once they drift below 5%. Separately, Lingotto Investment Management (the Agnelli family's investment arm) filed a 13G/A in August 2026 showing its stake trimmed to 7.1% from a prior 8.7%. Shah Capital also trimmed slightly through June. On the insider side, Director Augie Fabela made open-market purchases totalling roughly $1.1 million across two days in early August at prices in the mid-$50s — not under a 10b5-1 plan, and therefore carrying more signal weight than a scheduled sale would. The stock has since risen roughly 25% from those purchase prices.

Earnings history is thin but directionally positive. The most recent confirmed print (May 13 Q1 release) produced a +7.8% single-day gain and a +10.2% five-day move. The subsequent July print showed a much smaller 1-day reaction, though the five-day drift was still positive at 8.2%. The next event is scheduled for November 6.

Valuation is undemanding for a stock that has moved this far this fast. The trailing P/E runs at roughly 8.7x, with EV/EBITDA at 3.4x — both of which have expanded modestly over 30 days but remain well below typical emerging-market telecom comparables. The ORTEX short score of 30.9 is low (below 50 signals limited short pressure), consistent with a float that is institutionally concentrated and lightly shorted. Closest listed peers TIGO and KYIV both slipped on the week, falling roughly 1.5% each, while VEON added nearly 1% — a modest but notable divergence given the shared frontier-market exposure.

The November 6 earnings date is the focal point to watch: with options fully skewed toward the call side and the stock carrying a 17% one-month gain into the release, how the print lands against the growth guidance communicated through the year — 12–15% EBITDA expansion — will determine whether the bullish positioning in the options market finds fundamental support.