VEON has climbed 19% in a month while its borrow cost has jumped more than sixfold — and the options market has swung to its most bullish reading of the past year.
The cost-to-borrow story is the most eye-catching data point this week. Borrow costs have risen more than 540% over the past month, reaching a recent intraday high of 9.7% on August 27 before settling back to 2.8% by September 1. The volatility is striking — costs were below 0.1% as recently as August 21. That kind of whipsaw suggests episodic demand for borrows rather than a sustained short-building campaign. Short interest itself remains genuinely small, at just 0.3% of the free float. The absolute level makes a squeeze narrative essentially irrelevant, but the borrow-cost turbulence is worth watching as the stock holds near its recent highs.
Availability remains extremely loose, which puts the borrow-cost moves in context. With roughly 2,646% availability — meaning more than 26 shares are available to lend for every one already borrowed — there is no structural tightness in the lending pool. The recent CTB spikes look more like transient demand events than evidence of any concerted short build. The ORTEX short score has edged up this week to 31, a modest increase from 29 in late August, but nowhere near a level that would flag meaningful squeeze dynamics. Overall, the lending picture is loose rather than stressed.
What's more interesting right now is how options traders are positioning. The put/call ratio has fallen to 0.46 — the lowest reading of the past 52 weeks and more than 1.4 standard deviations below its 20-day average of 0.59. That marks a sharp reversal from a month ago, when the PCR was running above 0.75. Traders have rotated away from downside protection and toward call exposure. That shift tracks the price action: VEON is up 19% over the past month to $62.32, and the market appears to be leaning into that momentum rather than hedging against a reversal.
The ownership picture adds another layer of interest. LPE Middle East Limited — a vehicle connected to the LetterOne group — holds a 45.5% stake and filed a Schedule 13D last December, making it a declared activist on the register. That stake, as with all 13D/G disclosures, reflects the position as last reported; holders can move below 5% without a further filing. Separately, Lingotto Investment Management trimmed 776,938 shares through the end of June, and Shah Capital reduced its position by 222,919 shares over the same period. Against that, CEO Muhterem Terzioglu added to his holding in May, and founder-director Augie Fabela bought roughly $1.1 million of stock across two days in early August at prices around $56, well below the current level. The net 90-day insider flow is a positive $1.1 million — a modest but directionally consistent signal given the subsequent price move.
Valuation is undemanding even after the rally. The price-to-earnings multiple is around 7.8x, up roughly 1.2 turns over the past 30 days, and the EV/EBITDA ratio has actually compressed slightly to 3.2x as earnings estimates have kept pace with the price gain. EPS surprise ranks in the 73rd percentile, and the next earnings event is scheduled for November 6. The most recent quarter saw the stock move just 0.6% the day after results, though it added more than 8% over the following five sessions — a pattern that suggests the market tends to sit on the initial print and then reassess.
The setup heading into November is one to monitor: a stock that has re-rated sharply higher, an options market positioned for more upside, and an activist register that includes both a dominant 45% holder and a CEO with fresh skin in the game — all before a quarterly print that has historically produced its real price discovery in the days following rather than on the day itself.
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