COPX has snapped back hard this week, rising 6.4% to $89.98 — and the short sellers who piled in during last week's selloff are now on the wrong side of the move.
The reversal is striking given the context. The previous note, published September 16, documented a 10.4% weekly decline and a sharp tightening in borrow availability — from roughly 330% down to 90%, with short interest climbing 17% over the prior month. That bearish setup has now partially unwound. Availability has loosened back to 125%, up 38% on the week, meaning lenders have returned supply to the pool and the acute squeeze on borrows has eased. Short interest dipped 2.8% on the week to 9.4% of free float — still elevated, and still up 19% over the past month, but the intra-week direction has flipped. Bears built hard through mid-September; this week they trimmed.
The cost to borrow tells a slightly different story. At 0.56%, it has more than doubled over the past month and is running at a three-month high — even as availability loosened. That combination is worth noting: more shares available to lend, but lenders charging more for them. It suggests the pool of willing lenders is still thin relative to demand, and the easy supply that pushed availability above 300% in early September has not fully returned. Short interest at 9.4% of float is material for an ETF. The ORTEX short score at 54.5 — roughly mid-range — has drifted down slightly from a recent peak of 55.7 last week, consistent with the modest short covering.
Options positioning offers little drama. The put/call ratio of 0.41 is essentially flat against its 20-day average of 0.41, with a z-score barely below zero. Neither bulls nor bears are pressing hard through the options market. The 52-week range on the PCR runs from 0.15 to 0.68 — the current reading is squarely in the middle, suggesting options traders are neither loading up on calls to chase the rally nor reaching for puts to fade it. That neutrality is notable given the size of this week's price move.
The broader context for copper miners has shifted since the September 16 note. Then, the narrative had cracked on macro concerns. Now, the 6.4% weekly gain suggests at least a partial recovery in the underlying commodity and sentiment story — infrastructure spending and energy transition demand remain the structural bulls' thesis, while mining cost inflation and China demand uncertainty keep the bears engaged. With short interest still near 9.4% of float after a month of building, there is a meaningful short base that has not yet fully covered, even after this week's pullback.
The key dynamic to watch is whether availability continues to loosen or reverses again toward the tighter levels seen last week — and whether the elevated cost to borrow reflects a durable shift in the lending market or simply lags the availability recovery by a few days.
See the live data behind this article on ORTEX.
Open COPX on ORTEX →ORTEX Market Intelligence content is generated by AI from a snapshot of ORTEX's proprietary data. Content is informational only and does not constitute investment advice.
