JP Morgan Upgrades CRWV — but Bears Keep Building

Why this matters: CoreWeave drew a JP Morgan upgrade and a fresh UBS initiation this week. Short sellers responded by adding, not retreating. Three distinct data streams are now pulling in different directions on the same stock.

The Analyst Story

JP Morgan's Samik Chatterjee upgraded CRWV to Overweight this morning, lifting his price target to $125 from $120. UBS initiated coverage at Buy with a $120 target on Tuesday. Both moves arrive against a backdrop of deep Street disagreement. The consensus sits at "hold," with 8 buys and 8 holds — and Rothschild & Co opened a Sell on Monday with a $54 target, less than two-thirds of where the stock currently trades.

The mean analyst price target stands at $141. At $86.90, that implies roughly 62% upside — but the dispersion around that figure is wide enough to be almost meaningless.

Short Interest Keeps Rising

Yesterday's note flagged aggressive short-side accumulation. That trend has not paused. Short interest now sits at 17.95% of the free float — up 18.7% over five sessions and nearly 20% month-over-month. The ORTEX short score reached 64.6 on September 22, up from 58.3 on September 17. It ranks in the 11th percentile on the short-score factor, signalling bears have conviction.

The borrow market is not flashing alarm. Availability stands at 162% — roughly 1.6 shares available for every share already borrowed. Cost to borrow sits near 0.50%. Shorts are building positions into easy, cheap liquidity.

Options Signal a Shift

The put/call ratio has moved from recent highs. The PCR stands at 0.75 on September 23, below its 20-day mean of 0.79. The z-score is -1.49 — not extreme, but the drift toward calls in a week when shorts are aggressively accumulating is a notable contradiction. Options traders are leaning bullish; borrow-market participants are not.

BlackRock's Quiet Accumulation

One institutional data point cuts through the noise. BlackRock added 14.7 million shares as of its last reported date — a position build from near-zero to 4.4% of shares outstanding. That is the largest single disclosed position change among major institutional holders and sits alongside the analyst upgrades as a structural counterweight to the short-side pressure.

Data Summary

• Short interest: 17.95% of free float, up 18.7% in five sessions
• ORTEX short score: 64.6 (September 22), up from 58.3 on September 17
• Borrow availability: 162% — plenty of supply relative to current short interest
• Cost to borrow: ~0.50%, unchanged on the week
• Put/call ratio: 0.75, z-score -1.49 (below the 20-day mean of 0.79)
• JP Morgan: upgraded to Overweight, PT raised to $125; UBS initiated Buy at $120; Rothschild initiated Sell at $54
• Analyst split: 8 buys vs. 8 holds; mean PT $141
• BlackRock: added ~14.7M shares in last reported period
• Next earnings: November 12