JP Morgan Upgrades MAC as Options Market Flips Bullish — Shorts Keep Building

Why this matters: Two high-profile analyst upgrades have landed on MAC within days of each other. The options market has swung to its most bullish posture in 52 weeks. Yet short sellers are simultaneously piling in at the fastest pace in months. Something has to give.

Analysts Turn Constructive

JP Morgan upgraded Macerich to Overweight on September 24, setting a $26 price target. That followed Evercore ISI's move three days earlier — also an upgrade, to Outperform, with a matching $26 target.

Both upgrades land on a stock trading at $22.67. That implies roughly 15% upside to the new targets. Piper Sandler went further in August, raising its target to $30 with an Overweight rating. The consensus now stands at "buy," with nine buy ratings against three holds.

The bull case centres on premium mall asset quality, high sales per square foot, and management's progress on leverage reduction. Bears counter that debt remains heavy and occupancy headwinds linger in a soft consumer environment.

Options Market at a 52-Week Extreme

The put-call ratio for MAC hit 0.12 on September 23. That is the lowest reading in 52 weeks. A year ago the ratio peaked at 1.47 — a near-perfect reversal of sentiment.

The 20-day average PCR sits at 0.37. The current reading is nearly 2.8 standard deviations below that mean. Call buyers have overwhelmed put buyers in dramatic fashion over the past week. As recently as September 18, the PCR stood at 0.42 — the collapse to 0.12 happened in just four trading sessions.

Short Interest Rises Against the Grain

Short sellers are not yet convinced. SI hit 14.0% of free float as of September 23. That is up 10.5% in a week and up 16.6% over the past month — the highest level in over a month.

At 35.7 million shares short, the position is substantial. Days-to-cover stands at 14 days based on the most recent official FINRA data. That is meaningful potential fuel if sentiment continues to shift.

Notably, the borrow market is not tight. Availability sits at 245% — meaning roughly 2.5 shares remain available to borrow for every share already lent out. Shorts are adding freely; there is no supply constraint squeezing them out. Cost to borrow is just 0.45%, near a one-month low.

The ORTEX short score stands at 71.2, elevated and broadly stable over the past two weeks.

Institutional Holders Adding

BlackRock added 8.5 million shares in its most recent reported period, lifting its stake to 19.3% of shares outstanding. FMR (Fidelity) added 7.4 million shares, now holding 11.1%. Principal Global Investors added 5.8 million shares. The buying is broad-based across the top of the register.

Data Summary

• Price: $22.67, down 7.0% over the past month
• SI % of Free Float: 14.0%, up 10.5% week-on-week
• Short score: 71.2 (as of Sep 23)
• Put-call ratio: 0.12 — 52-week low; z-score –2.82
• Availability: 245% (normal; borrow not constrained)
• Cost to borrow: 0.45%
• Analyst consensus: Buy (9 buys, 3 holds)
• Next earnings: November 4