JP Morgan Upgrades REG as Shorts Build and Analysts Diverge

JP Morgan broke from the pack on Wednesday. The firm upgraded REG to Overweight with an $83 price target — even as short interest has climbed 18.4% over the past month to 3.46% of free float.

The split signals a genuine debate. JP Morgan sees value. Others are pulling back.

The Analyst Rift

Three firms moved on REG this week. The directions diverge sharply.

JP Morgan's Michael Mueller upgraded from Neutral to Overweight, setting a fresh $83 target. That implies roughly 14% upside from Wednesday's close of $72.73.

The same day, Mizuho's Haendel St. Juste cut his price target from $82 to $76 — while keeping a Neutral rating. Evercore ISI also trimmed its target to $81 from $83 earlier in the week.

The consensus sits at Hold. The mean price target is $86.56 across the analyst panel. That's a near-19% premium to current levels — wide enough to be meaningful, yet the stock has shed 4.4% over the past month.

Barclays raised its target to $92 in August and remains Overweight. Wells Fargo also holds Overweight, albeit with a trimmed target at $88. Bulls and bears are both anchored in the same stock.

Shorts Build, Then Ease

Short interest rose 18.4% over the past month to 3.46% of free float — a notable buildup for a large retail REIT. That said, the weekly trend shows some unwinding. Shorts fell roughly 14% in the week to September 18 before partially rebounding.

The borrow market remains very relaxed. Availability stands at 5,592% — approximately 179 million shares still available to borrow relative to current short positions. There is no lending-market pressure on shorts here. Cost to borrow sits at just 0.47%, up modestly over the month but still firmly in the low-cost range.

The ORTEX short score is 38.7, stable over the past week and well off its intraday spike to 41.7 on September 11.

Institutional Backdrop

The major holders are broadly adding. BlackRock holds 11% and added shares in the most recent reported period. State Street, T. Rowe Price, Geode, and Northern Trust all show net additions. Charles Schwab Investment Management added 190,786 shares as of August 31 — the largest recent addition among the top-15 holders.

No 13D activists are on the register.

Earnings are next scheduled for November 5.

Data Summary

• Short Interest % FF: 3.46%, up 18.4% over 30 days
• Borrow availability: 5,592% — extremely loose
• Cost to borrow: 0.47%
• JP Morgan: Upgraded to Overweight, $83 target
• Mizuho: Neutral, target cut to $76
• Consensus: Hold, mean target $86.56
• Stock close (Sep 23): $72.73, down 4.4% over one month
• Next earnings: November 5