MTN Bears Step Up Three Days Before the Print

Why this matters: Three days before Vail Resorts reports earnings, short sellers added aggressively on September 24. Options traders are now rotating into calls. Both moves land while analysts are still cutting targets. The signals conflict — and that tension makes the September 28 print all the more consequential.

Short Interest Jumps to New High

Short interest hit 17.7% of the free float on September 24. That is up 9.0% in a single day and 11.9% over the week — the sharpest weekly build since data showed in the current series.

For context, the position was already elevated. It now sits in the 4th percentile of the ORTEX universe by short score factor rank. The ORTEX short score itself is 76.8, up from 74.1 on September 14. Bears have been adding steadily, and the September 24 jump accelerated the trend.

Days-to-cover stands at 7.82 per the most recent FINRA fortnightly data. That is a meaningful cushion for short sellers — but it also means any sharp upside move post-earnings would be difficult to unwind quickly.

Borrow availability remains comfortable at around 95%, so the lending market is not yet placing a meaningful constraint on further short-building. Cost to borrow is just 0.96% — low, despite rising 45% over the past week.

Options Traders Pulling Back From Puts

The put-call ratio fell to 0.99 on September 23, well below the 20-day mean of 1.45. That is a sharp reversal. For most of August and early September, PCR was running between 1.58 and 1.75 — consistent with heavy put positioning. The collapse toward parity suggests some options participants are covering downside hedges or opening fresh calls into the earnings window.

The two signals — rising short interest and a falling PCR — do not obviously agree. Short sellers are adding. Options traders are buying less protection. One interpretation: shorts are positioned for a miss, while options flow reflects traders unwilling to pay elevated premiums this close to the print.

Analysts: Cuts Continue

As reported in the earlier MTN earnings preview, the analyst move since September 21 reinforces the bearish tilt. Mizuho cut its target to $160 from $174. Stifel dropped to $161 from $167. BNP Paribas downgraded to Neutral on September 21, cutting to $135 from $151. Goldman Sachs sits at Sell with a $132 target — effectively at the current price of $137.82.

The consensus mean target is $144.77. That implies roughly 5% upside from here. But the direction of revisions is unambiguously lower.

Meanwhile, Oasis Management filed a Schedule 13D/A on September 22, raising its stake from 6.2% to 7.4%. As always, positions are as-last-disclosed. The activist flag remains on the register — five filings since February, each an amendment rather than a wind-down.

Data Summary

• SI % of Free Float: 17.7% (as of Sep 24), up from 15.9% a week ago
• Short score: 76.8 (Sep 23), up from 74.1 on Sep 14
• Put-call ratio: 1.23 (Sep 24); 20-day mean 1.45
• Borrow availability: ~95% — lending market not constrained
• Cost to borrow: 0.96%, up 45% on the week but still low in absolute terms
• Consensus price target: $144.77; current price $137.82
• Earnings date: September 28