MGM Call Buyers Clash With Rising Short Tide

Options traders are betting on a rebound in MGM Resorts International. The put/call ratio has collapsed to 0.44 — a 52-week low and nearly 2.2 standard deviations below its 20-day mean. That is aggressive bullish positioning by any measure. Yet short sellers are simultaneously adding pressure, with SI climbing to 7.0% of free float on Sep 24 — up 18% in a single day.

The stock has fallen 23% over the past month to $33.69.

Bulls Buy Calls, Bears Buy Shares to Short

The PCR drop is stark. For most of August and early September, the ratio hovered between 0.62 and 0.68. It then fell sharply through last week, reaching 0.44 by Sep 24 — near the 52-week floor of 0.44. Call buyers are positioning for a recovery even as the stock slides.

On the other side, short sellers rebuilt positions decisively this week. SI hit approximately 19.1 million shares on Sep 24, up from 16.2 million the day before. That is the highest level since late August, though still well below the 23–24 million share peak seen in mid-August before the prior rally.

The borrow market offers no constraint. Availability stands at 1,499% — nearly 140 million shares available to borrow against roughly 19 million currently shorted. Cost to borrow is 0.50%, trivially low. Bears face zero friction adding to positions.

Analysts Hold Targets, Street Stays Split

Two analyst actions landed on Sep 24. Macquarie's Chad Beynon maintained his Outperform rating and $55 target. Mizuho's Ben Chaiken also kept Outperform but cut his target from $60 to $55. UBS had already trimmed to $46 (Neutral) on Sep 11.

The consensus mean target sits at $49.33 — implying roughly 46% upside from the current price. That gap between price and target is where the call buyers may be anchoring their thesis.

Earnings are due Oct 28. The last print saw the stock fall ~1.2% on the day and ~3.7% over five sessions.

People Inc. Lifts Its Stake

The activist angle adds another layer. People Incorporated, the company's largest shareholder at 26.5% of shares outstanding, filed a fresh Schedule 13D/A on Sep 24 — its fifth filing since first disclosing in December 2025. Their stake edged up from 26.1% to 26.5% (as last disclosed). Stakes are event-driven disclosures; the position may have moved since filing.

Data Summary

• SI % of Free Float: 7.0% (Sep 24), up 18% in one day, up 12% over one week
• Shares short: ~19.1 million
• Availability: 1,499% — extremely loose borrow market
• Cost to borrow: 0.50%
• Put/call ratio: 0.44 — 52-week low, –2.2 standard deviations vs 20-day mean
• Price: $33.69, down 23% over one month
• Consensus target: $49.33 (Hold consensus, 13 analysts)
• Next earnings: Oct 28, 2026
• People Inc. 13D/A: filed Sep 24, stake at 26.5%