Why this matters: Short positions in HMC have climbed 37% in a week. At the same time, the company just posted its largest-ever August for two-wheeler sales in India. Bears and real-economy data are pointing in opposite directions.
Short interest in HMC has risen sharply. Shares short stood at approximately 2.62 million as of September 28, up 37% over the prior week and 12% in a single day. The ORTEX short score has tracked this move — rising from 37.2 on September 15 to 46.7 on September 28.
The borrow market tightened materially through the week before partially easing. Availability hit a low of 47% on September 25 — fewer than one share available for every two already borrowed, touching the 52-week minimum. It has since rebounded to approximately 100%, suggesting the acute squeeze on supply has passed for now.
Cost to borrow surged over the same stretch. CTB reached 2.09% on September 25, more than tripling from levels below 0.70% in mid-September. It has since pulled back to 1.46% — still up 230% against the 30-day comparison.
Options positioning adds a notable counter-signal. The put/call ratio dropped sharply to 0.51, well below its 20-day mean of 0.86. The PCR z-score is -1.53 — the most call-heavy positioning in months — suggesting a segment of the market is positioned for upside even as short sellers accumulate.
The alt data angle is the sharpest counterpoint to the building short position. India two-wheeler registrations (Vahan, Ministry of Road Transport & Highways) hit 438,482 units in August 2026 — the largest August on record since data began in 2017. This matters for Honda specifically: its two-wheeler business is a core India franchise.
Separately, Japan Automobile Dealers Association (自販連) new car sales data has been shown to lead Honda's quarterly revenue by 65 days — a strong fit over 14 quarters, with an 83% hit rate. With two of three months of the current quarter now in, Japan car sales are running 8.8% above the same quarter last year, and 14.7% above last quarter. Next earnings are due November 6, 38 days away.
BlackRock held 8.8% of HMC shares as of August 31, adding approximately 4.8 million shares in the most recent period. Norway's Norges Bank trimmed by 4.6 million shares over the same window.
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