Ondas Inc. heads into the final week of Q3 with short interest back near its September peak, the borrow market still completely exhausted, and the options market cooling from its most defensive stance of the year but not yet relaxed.
The short position tells the week's clearest story. Short interest rose 2.7% on the week to 64.3% of free float, reversing the mild covering that briefly appeared in mid-September and putting the position back near the top of the range it has occupied since early August. That is against a backdrop of a stock falling 3.1% to $7.48. Bears are not taking the weaker tape as a reason to cover. The borrow market provides no relief for anyone trying to press new shorts: availability has been at 0% every session for which data exists, meaning every share in the lending pool remains lent out. That is not a new development, this has been the case for weeks, but it keeps the cost of maintaining short positions elevated. Cost to borrow has eased considerably from above 11% in August to 4.88%, the lowest level of the past 30 days, which at least tells existing shorts their carrying cost is falling even as their conviction is rising.
Options positioning has eased from its most extreme reading but has not turned bullish. The put/call ratio closed at 0.48, down from the 0.51 spike two weeks ago that sat near four standard deviations above the 20-day mean. The z-score has pulled back to 0.81, still modestly above average but no longer flashing the urgent warning of mid-September. The 52-week high on the PCR is 0.54, and this week's reading is back below the prior peak. The best read is that options traders dialled down their most aggressive hedges without rotating meaningfully into calls. With Q3 earnings scheduled for November 13, 44 days away, that caution has a natural anchor.
The Street remains uniformly constructive, a contrast that has persisted for months without closing the gap with the stock price. All recent analyst actions have been buys or outperforms. Needham reiterated its Buy with a $19 target as recently as September 14. Ladenburg Thalmann raised its target to $22.75 after Q2 results in August. Oppenheimer lifted to $18 on the same day. The mean target across coverage is $19.42, implying the stock trades at a roughly 60% discount to where analysts think it belongs. The bull case rests on record Q2 revenue of $83.8 million, up 1,235% year on year (largely acquisition-driven), a backlog north of $757 million, and $175 million of new orders in the quarter. The bear case is equally coherent: the company still carries negative EBITDA, a capital-intensive cost structure, and margin pressure from amortization and a low-margin contract expected to weigh on the second half. The EPS momentum factor scores rank in the bottom decile over both 30 and 90 days, and the 12-month forward EPS growth score ranks 1st percentile. Analysts like the story. The numbers are not yet there.
One item on the 13D register is worth noting. Joseph Popolo, who filed a Schedule 13D as an activist in January 2025, disclosed in June 2025 that his stake had fallen from 8.32% to 4.95%. He may have continued reducing. As the disclosure note attached to this data states, positions around the 5% threshold are event-driven filings and a holder who drops below 5% may not file again. Popolo's active agenda, whatever it was, appears to have diminished. BlackRock disclosed a 7.2% stake in July 2026, the largest single holder on the 13D/G register, though that is a passive position. Insider activity over the past 90 days amounts to a net sale of roughly $105,000, driven by the CFO exercising and immediately selling options on September 24. Nothing in that pattern signals unusual conviction either way.
The prior two earnings prints provide useful context for what November 13 may bring. The August 2026 result produced a 5.4% one-day decline and a 14.2% drop over the following five days. The data before that showed a 1% gain on the day. Given that the short position is near its peak and the borrow market is fully exhausted, any sharp move lower could face a crowded exit, while any surprise to the upside would land in a market where there is no available stock to borrow for new shorts entering the squeeze. The setup into that print is worth watching closely.
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