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SPCX enters the first week of October with the bear camp in full withdrawal: short interest has dropped to its lowest level since the mid-September surge, the ORTEX short score has fallen sharply from last week's elevated readings, and the stock added 7% on the week to close at $158.96.
The short retreat is now hard to argue with. Estimated shares short fell to 187.1 million by October 2, down 4.2% on the week and continuing the pullback from the September 24 peak of 195.4 million. The ORTEX short score, which hit 65 in late September, has dropped to 54.4, a meaningful de-escalation that signals the position is no longer under pressure to grow. The previous note flagged that the September 18-to-22 build had stalled; it has now unwound further. Borrow availability has loosened in step, rising to nearly 197%, almost two shares available to borrow for every one already shorted, with cost to borrow down 20% on the week to just 0.46%, close to its lowest level of the past two months. The lending market is not pricing in any stress. Options positioning stays modestly defensive, with the put/call ratio at 1.05, just above its 20-day average of 1.03 and well short of last week's brief spike to 1.14. That is consistent with routine hedging rather than any fresh directional conviction.
The Street's posture is broadly constructive and has become more so in the past week. Macquarie held its Outperform and $250 target on September 30, while TD Cowen initiated with a Buy and a $200 target on September 29. CLSA also initiated at Outperform with a $250 target on September 28. Deutsche Bank reiterated Buy at $235. The lone holdout is MoffettNathanson, which raised its target from $131 to $142 but stayed at Neutral, the clearest bear on the register among active analysts. The mean analyst target sits at $226, implying roughly 42% upside from the current price. Valuation is stretched: the forward PE is 110 and EV/EBITDA is 76.6, though the latter has compressed by about 8 points over the past 30 days as the stock has re-rated earnings expectations faster than the share price. The bull case rests on SpaceX's commanding 80%-plus share of global orbital launch volume and a projected AI compute revenue ramp from $14 billion in 2026 to $66 billion in 2027. The bear case is simpler: that the valuation assumes simultaneous flawless execution across launch, connectivity, and AI infrastructure, with no margin for capacity slippage or slower customer adoption.
Ownership is concentrated and largely stable, which matters for understanding the float dynamics. Elon Musk holds 44.7% of shares as last disclosed, with Alphabet at 4.1%, Valor Management at 3.4%, and Founders Fund at 3.1%. Valor is the only top holder with a recently disclosed change, adding 88 million shares as of September 11. The activist register carries no Schedule 13D filers: Musk, Antonio Gracias (6.5%), Peter Thiel (5.5%), and Google (7.2%) all hold via 13G passive disclosures filed in August. As ever with 13D/G data, these stakes are as-last-disclosed and holders dropping below 5% are not obliged to file again. On the insider side, President and COO Gwynne Shotwell exercised options and sold approximately $52.6 million in net value over 90 days, all under a pre-arranged 10b5-1 plan, a scheduled transaction rather than a discretionary signal.
Earnings are due November 5. The two most recent prints produced the same pattern: an initial one-day decline of roughly 5 to 8% followed by a strong five-day recovery averaging 16%. With the short position deflating, availability loose, and the stock already up 12% over the past month, the setup into November 5 is less about whether bears have conviction and more about whether the AI infrastructure buildout numbers and Starlink subscriber trajectory can justify the multiple the Street is now being asked to pay.
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