Stories are generated from ORTEX data and reviewed by the ORTEX team. How we publish
SoFi Technologies heads into its October 26 earnings with short positioning near a multi-month peak, the borrow market holding tight, and the Street broadly cautious, a setup that has barely shifted since last week's note despite the stock losing another 1% on the day.
Short interest has essentially plateaued at elevated levels. It stands at 16.5% of free float, representing roughly 199 million shares, barely changed from the 16.5% reported in our September 30 note. The month-on-month build remains striking: shorts have grown 17% over the past 30 days, with the bulk of that move concentrated in the September 22 to 23 jump. The ORTEX short score has edged fractionally higher to 68.2, placing the stock in the bottom 7th percentile of the universe. The brief acceleration has not reversed; it has simply paused. Days to cover runs at 5.2 based on FINRA's most recent fortnightly data, meaning any forced unwind would not be trivial.
Borrow conditions have stabilised rather than eased. Availability has nudged back to 94%, marginally tighter than the 52-week low of 79.6%, and consistent with where it has been over the past week. That level still implies there is roughly one share available for every share already borrowed, far removed from the 160%-plus availability seen in mid-September when shorts were rebuilding. Cost to borrow has drifted back to 0.51%, modest in absolute terms but up 30% over the month as demand for the borrow has grown. Options traders remain conspicuously relaxed: the put/call ratio is 0.435, just below its 20-day average of 0.44 and a z-score of minus 0.3, a near-neutral reading. The 52-week high on the PCR was 0.68, so today's reading suggests options buyers are not rushing to hedge into the print.
The Street is cautious but divided. TD Cowen trimmed its target from $18 to $17.50 this morning, maintaining a Hold, the latest in a run of modest cuts following Q2 results. After that earnings release in late July, Mizuho lowered its target sharply from $29 to $22 while keeping an Outperform, and Morgan Stanley cut to $15 while staying Underweight. Against that, two initiations in August and September added incremental support: Scotiabank began at Sector Outperform with a $25 target and Piper Sandler moved to Overweight with a $22 target. The mean price target is $20.33, implying roughly 29% upside to the $15.76 close. The bull case rests on SoFi's bank charter, 43% year-on-year revenue growth in Q1, and 19.3 million total products. Bears point to a 27% contraction in the Technology segment, Q2 EPS guidance that trailed the Street's estimate, and structural reliance on ABS markets to fund loan growth. The PE multiple has compressed by 3.7 points over the past 30 days to 20.5x, and the price-to-book ratio has fallen 0.28 points to 1.6x, reflecting the stock's 13.5% monthly decline.
One corner of the data worth noting is SoFi's bank balance sheet, tracked via FDIC call reports. Total assets and total deposits have each risen for nine consecutive quarters, with total assets reaching $56.8 billion and deposits $46.8 billion as of the April period. The FDIC dataset is untested as a lead indicator for SoFi's reported earnings, so no forward inference is warranted, but the streak does illustrate that the deposit franchise continues to grow even as the stock has sold off.
On the ownership side, CEO Anthony Noto added 315,830 shares in the period to September 14, bringing his disclosed holding to 12.3 million shares. Insider selling has otherwise been routine and largely under pre-arranged 10b5-1 plans, limiting its signal value. BlackRock added 2.9 million shares to a 5.6% stake in the most recent period, while Goldman Sachs Asset Management added 9.6 million shares, reaching a 1.2% holding. D. E. Shaw trimmed sharply, cutting 28 million shares. Among peers, UPST rose 3.1% on the week while SYF gained 0.6%, both outperforming SoFi's flat-to-down week.
With 19 days to the October 26 print, the question is whether short sellers stay committed at 16.5% of float or begin to cover as the event risk crystallises.
See the live data behind this article on ORTEX.
Open SOFI on ORTEX →ORTEX Market Intelligence content is generated by AI from a snapshot of ORTEX's proprietary data and reviewed by the ORTEX team. Content is informational only and does not constitute investment advice.
