AEHR into Earnings: Shorts Building, Stock Down 12%

Short positioning tells the more important story this week. Short interest has climbed to 17.5% of the free float, up 20.6% over the past month, a sustained build that suggests conviction behind the bearish camp rather than event-driven noise. The ORTEX short score has edged to 59.4, its highest reading of the past two weeks. Despite that, the borrow market is not flashing stress: availability is ample at 277%, meaning there are nearly three shares available to lend for every share already borrowed, down from above 600% in early September but still a long way from tight. Cost to borrow has drifted up 12% over the week to 0.46%, which is low in absolute terms. Positioning is bearish but not squeezed. The options market adds a modest hedging overlay: the put/call ratio at 0.89 is just above its 20-day average of 0.87, roughly 1.3 standard deviations elevated, which is firm but not alarming relative to the 52-week high of 1.08.

The Street remains constructive in aggregate, though the picture has layers. Six analysts carry buy or outperform ratings with a consensus mean target of $128, implying roughly 39% upside from Tuesday's close. The two freshest actions, Oppenheimer initiating at Outperform with a $120 target in September and Jefferies initiating at Buy with a $175 target in August, bracket a wide range and reflect genuine disagreement on how fast silicon carbide wafer-level burn-in demand re-accelerates. Valuation has compressed with the sell-off: the EV/EBITDA multiple dropped 8.3 points on the week to 55.6x and is 36.6 points lower over 30 days, the sharpest de-rating in the data. The PE of 74.5x leaves little room for disappointment. Factor scores split the same way: the 90-day EPS momentum rank is a perfect 100 and the forward analyst recommendation differential is in the 93rd percentile, but the short score factor rank is in just the 10th percentile and dividend score in the 18th, painting a growth-at-elevated-risk picture.

One data point worth noting: retail attention spiked to a z-score of 2.3 above its own 90-day history as of September 29, measured across Wikipedia views and ORTEX page traffic. That is attention, not a directional indicator, but the timing ahead of a major catalyst suggests traders are watching closely.

History adds context. The last two earnings prints produced outsized moves in both directions: a 29% gain the day after the July 2026 release and a 13.8% gain on the prior occasion. Both were followed by further strength over the following five days. The pattern reflects how binary the AEHR setup has tended to be: the stock moves hard on results, whichever way they go.

With the print five days away, the question is whether the month-long short build reflects well-founded concern about guidance or simply amplifies price action on whatever the company delivers.