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HAR heads into its October 23 earnings with the stock down 13% over the past month and borrowing costs quietly doubling, even as the lending pool remains far from tight.
The most notable shift in the borrow market is the speed of the cost-to-borrow move. At 1.307%, the annualised rate has risen 77% over the past week and has more than doubled since early September, when it sat below 0.65%. That is a meaningful acceleration for a name that has historically been cheap to borrow. The direction of travel matters more than the absolute level here: at just over 1.3%, the cost remains low in absolute terms. Availability, though, tells a contrasting story. At 861% of estimated short interest, there are still roughly nine shares available to borrow for every one currently lent out, well above the 52-week low of 187%. The borrow market is loosening, not tightening, even as the rate rises. That combination points to a modest uptick in short demand rather than any meaningful squeeze pressure. The ORTEX short score climbed to 30.2 on October 6, its highest reading in the past two weeks, but the absolute level remains far from alarm territory.
The stock's own valuation underscores why some investors are paying attention. HAR trades on a trailing PE of around 4.2x and an EV/EBITDA of 2.8x. Both multiples have compressed over the past 30 days, with the PE down roughly one full turn and book value slipping as the share price falls. The ORTEX factor scores give HAR a 93rd percentile rank on EV/EBIT, meaning it screens as one of the cheapest names in its universe on that measure. The short score rank at the 92nd percentile reflects the low absolute short interest rather than heavy bearish positioning. Analyst data is too stale to be usable here. The most recent consensus on record dates to January 2021, so no Street guidance is incorporated in this note.
The ownership picture offers some context on who is absorbing the selling. Public Investment Corporation holds 16.1% of shares, African Rainbow Minerals 10.8%, with both unchanged in recent filings. BlackRock and Van Eck both added modestly in the quarter to September 30, each picking up a few hundred thousand shares. Norges Bank added nearly 4.8 million shares as of June 30, the largest single change among the top holders in recent periods. The insider activity this week was entirely compensation grants to Executive Director HE Mashego on October 2, with no open-market buying or selling to read across.
The earnings history adds a note of caution to the setup. The August 27 result produced a single-day decline of 6.9% and a five-day loss of 8.6%, a sharp reaction that stands as the most recent data point. HAR has underperformed close peers this week too: IMP fell 4.3% and NPH dropped 4.3%, similar to HAR's 3.9% weekly loss, while GFI held up better at minus 1.4%. The October 23 print will be the next test of whether the stock's compressed multiples are warranted by the cost structure or represent a genuine value gap relative to the senior gold peer group.
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