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ABBV heads into its October 29 earnings report with the Street turning more constructive, the stock at a month-long high, and short sellers continuing to retreat.
The most notable development this week is on the analyst side. Morgan Stanley raised its price target to $310 from $296 on Wednesday, maintaining an Overweight rating, the most recent in a run of upgrades that has shaped the tone around the name. Scotiabank moved to $320 from $280 on Tuesday, also keeping its positive rating. Both moves follow HSBC's raise to $315 in September and a string of target increases from Piper Sandler, Wells Fargo, and Wolfe Research through August. The consensus mean now sits at $280.79, roughly 5% above Tuesday's close of $266.69, though the most recent bullish targets cluster meaningfully higher. The bull case rests on durable Skyrizi and Rinvoq growth absorbing the Humira decline, with the neuroscience and oncology pipeline adding diversification. Bears point to IRA pricing headwinds, a 20% net price drop expected in Imbruvica, and acquisition costs that have weighed on margins. The dividend score ranks in the 98th percentile, and the forward earnings growth score ranks 81st, reflecting the Street's view that the franchise is expanding even under pressure.
Short positioning is not the story here, but it is worth a quick note because the direction has shifted. Short interest ticked up fractionally this week, ending at 1.04% of free float, breaking a three-week run of steady declines that had taken the position from roughly 1.2% in mid-September. The absolute level remains low. Borrow costs have jumped 131% over the week to 0.39%, a notable move in percentage terms, though the absolute rate is still trivial for a stock this size. Availability is effectively unlimited, with over 1.1 billion shares in the lending pool against 18 million shorted, so there is no squeeze dynamic to speak of. The ORTEX short score of 32.1 is barely changed over the past two weeks.
Options positioning is mildly defensive but not alarming. The put/call ratio is at 0.84, just under half a standard deviation above its 20-day average of 0.83, and well below the 52-week high of 1.13. That is not a market bracing for a sharp move, it is a market adding modest hedges into a known catalyst date.
The stock gained 1.3% on the week to $266.69, outperforming most of its biopharma peers. INCY fell 8.5% and VRTX dropped 4.6% over the same period. AMGN and GILD were both off roughly 5%. AbbVie's relative strength this week stands out. That pattern is consistent with what recent notes have flagged: limited short-side pressure has allowed positive sentiment to translate directly into price.
The last earnings print on July 31 saw the stock fall 4.8% on the day and a further 4.4% over the following week, the dominant reaction in the recent history. With earnings 22 days away and the Street raising targets into the release, the question going into the October 29 call is whether the Skyrizi and Rinvoq prescription data justifies the premium the upgraded targets are pricing in.
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