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TTAN has bounced 8% on the week to $68.67, yet the stock remains 22% lower over the past month, and the data underneath the surface suggests short sellers are not giving up.
Short interest has been grinding higher since the September 8 earnings collapse, and the trend continued this week. Bears hold 9.7% of the free float, up 11% over the past month and fractionally higher again on Tuesday. The one-week change is a modest 0.9% decline, so the pace of accumulation has slowed from the aggressive 26% weekly build seen in the run into late September. Borrow conditions remain accommodative: availability is running at 235%, meaning more than two shares sit available to borrow for every one already lent out. That is well above the 52-week tightest reading of 138%. Cost to borrow has drifted up 25% over the past month but remains low at 0.57%. The lending market is not signalling a squeeze; it is signalling that bears have room to add if they choose.
Options positioning has shifted meaningfully since earnings and stayed there. The put/call ratio has been running near 0.63 to 0.68 for the past two weeks, well above the 20-day average of 0.54 and close to the 52-week high of 0.76. The z-score of 0.75 is not extreme, but the persistence of elevated put demand since the September print is notable. Before that event, the PCR was sitting in the 0.35 to 0.40 range. The change in character is clear: options buyers have been hedging defensively, and that posture has not unwound despite the week's partial recovery.
The Street has absorbed the earnings shock without abandoning its bullish ratings, though targets have come in sharply. After the September 8 print, analysts at Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo, Stifel, TD Cowen, Truist and Canaccord all cut targets, with Morgan Stanley's move from $124 to $92 the most dramatic among the group. Every firm kept a Buy or Overweight rating. TD Cowen reiterated its $100 target as recently as October 7, and BTIG stood firm at $110 on October 2. The mean target sits at $97.53, implying roughly 42% upside from current levels. The bull case rests on a $31 billion TAM, 21% revenue growth and improving incremental margins. The bear case points to softer gross transaction value growth, an SMB-heavy customer base exposed to macro and rate pressure, and competitive risk from private-market entrants. The short score of 60.5 ranks in the 12th percentile for short positioning against peers, meaning bears are more heavily committed here than in 88% of comparable names.
Insider activity since the print points one way. The CFO sold $1.33 million of stock on September 17, a discretionary open-market sale not made under a 10b5-1 plan. The CEO and President also sold on the same day, though at smaller amounts. The Chief Accounting Officer followed with a further discretionary sale on September 23. Net insider selling over the past 90 days totals roughly $22.4 million across 270,000 shares. None of these trades carry a 10b5-1 pre-arrangement disclosure, which removes the planned-sale mitigation that typically softens the signal. The co-founders, Ara Mahdessian and Vahe Kuzoyan, remain the two largest individual holders at 9% and 10.6% respectively, so the dilution from trimming is marginal, but the timing, all clustered in the weeks after a 35% one-day drop, is worth tracking. BlackRock, by contrast, added 3.17 million shares in the period ending September 30, lifting its stake to 5.4% and registering as one of the largest single buyer moves among institutional holders.
The next earnings date is December 4, 58 days away. The stock's only two historical reactions in the database show a 35% one-day drop in September and a 5% drop the prior quarter, with the five-day moves extending to 33% and 39% respectively. The December print will carry the weight of whether the softer GTV growth seen in August was a one-quarter disruption or the start of a deceleration trend. Wikipedia page views for ServiceTitan are running at a z-score of 3.3 against their own 90-day history, a signal that retail attention on the stock is elevated relative to normal, though attention alone is not a directional indicator. Peers BRZE and BSY each gained 14% to 16% on the week against TTAN's 8%, reinforcing that the bounce here has been shallower than in comparable software names. How the stock handles the gap between current levels and where analysts have clustered their targets, the $90 to $110 range, will set the tone heading into December.
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