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Canadian National Railway heads into its October 30 Q3 results with the stock down modestly, short positions rebuilding, and a well-known activist still on the register.
The most notable development in positioning this week is the sharp jump in short interest. Shares short rose 24% in a single day on October 6, taking SI to 4.83 million shares, equivalent to 0.78% of free float. That is still a low absolute level, but the one-month increase of 28% makes the direction worth watching ahead of earnings. The borrow market tells a different story: availability remains extremely loose, at over 4,600%, meaning there are roughly 46 shares available to lend for every one currently borrowed. Cost to borrow eased to 0.57% on October 6, down from a brief spike above 1% on October 5 and well below the 2.5% peak seen in early September. None of this points to conviction from short sellers; the lending market is wide open and costs are trivial.
The Street retains a constructive lean on CNR, with the consensus price target at CAD 189.32, implying roughly 12% upside from the current CAD 168.34. No recent analyst changes are on the tape in the past two weeks. Factor scores paint a solid if unspectacular picture: the dividend score ranks in the 99th percentile, reflecting a quarterly payout of CAD 0.915, and the EPS surprise score ranks in the 67th percentile, suggesting a modest habit of beating estimates. Forward momentum scores are softer, with the 12-month forward EPS year-on-year increase rank at 40 and value metrics similarly modest, the PE sits near 19.2x and EV/EBITDA near 13x, both drifting slightly lower over the past 30 days as the stock has slipped 1.3%.
The activist angle is worth noting, though the data is stale. TCI Fund Management filed a Schedule 13D/A in April 2025, disclosing a stake then equivalent to 4.2% of shares outstanding, or roughly 26.2 million shares. That filing is now 525 days old. As last disclosed, TCI had reduced its reported institutional holding to approximately 9.4 million shares as of June 30, 2026, per the ownership table, suggesting the position has been trimmed materially from the 13D level. Per standard disclosure rules, a holder dropping below 5% need not file again, so the current stake is unknown. The Gates Foundation Trust remains the single largest disclosed holder at 8.6% of shares, with no reported change in the latest period.
Peer performance this week shows CNR lagging its North American rail counterparts. CSX, Union Pacific, and Norfolk Southern all posted weekly gains of 0.9% to 1.2%. Closest Canadian peer Canadian Pacific Kansas City fell 1%, roughly in line with CNR's 1.6% weekly decline. The underperformance relative to the US rails is narrow but consistent this week, and may reflect currency or Canada-specific freight flow concerns rather than any company-specific news.
CNR's last two earnings prints produced negative one-day moves of 0.9% and 2.4% respectively. The five-day reaction after the May 2026 result was essentially flat, while the July result saw a further 3.1% drift lower over the week. The short score at 28.5 is stable and low, reflecting the thin short positioning. What to watch into October 30 is whether the freight volume backdrop, and any update on operating ratio progress, shifts the analyst consensus that currently sits about 12% above the market price.
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